| There are many problems such as excessive input of chemical fertilizers and insufficient utilization efficiency in vegetable planting in China.The problems of agricultural land pollution and the deterioration of cultivated land quality caused by excessive application of chemical fertilizers are particularly prominent.Accordingly,in 2015,China proposed the "Action Plan to Achieve Zero Growth in the Use of Chemical Fertilizers for Major Crops by 2020",and in 2017,the Ministry of Agriculture proposed the implementation of the organic fertilizer replacement action for fruit,vegetable tea.In short,controlling the total amount of chemical fertilizers will be an environmental constraint for a long time in the future,and organic fertilizer replacement is an effective way to achieve this goal.This essay will study the organic fertilizer substitution behavior of vegetable farmers under the constraint of total chemical fertilizer control,which is of great significance to achieve the goal of negative growth of chemical fertilizers and promote the green development of agriculture.This essay firstly analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics and driving factors of vegetable production and fertilizer application intensity in China from 2009 to 2020,and clarifies the current situation of fertilizer input in vegetable cultivation under total control from a macro level.Secondly,combined with the principal-agent theory,this essay further analyzes the effectiveness of organic fertilizer substitution for vegetable farmers under the current total control constraints,and clarifies the mechanism of organic fertilizer substitution behavior of vegetable farmers from the microscopic level.Finally,this essay puts forward the suggestions to promote the replacement of organic fertilizers for vegetable farmers under the total control.Through the above theoretical research and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:Under the general environment of controlling the total amount of chemical fertilizers,there is still a large potential for chemical fertilizer reduction in vegetable cultivation.The spatial distribution of vegetable fertilizer application intensity is characterized by obvious regional differences and concentrated contiguous patches,and intra-regional differences are the main reason for the difference in vegetable fertilizer application intensity in China.The per capita income of rural residents,the degree of large-scale operation of vegetables and the level of agricultural modernization have a significant negative impact on the intensity of vegetable fertilizer application,while the proportion of non-agricultural labor has a significant positive impact.The per capita income of rural residents,the degree of large-scale vegetable operation and the proportion of non-agricultural labor have significant spatial spillover effects.Controlling the total amount of chemical fertilizer use has a positive incentive effect on the organic fertilizer substitution behavior of vegetable farmers,and presents a heterogeneous feature.At this stage,the organic fertilizer substitution behavior of farmers has the following characteristics: First,vegetable farmers still prefer traditional technologies,and they are not enthusiastic about adopting innovative agricultural yield-increasing technologies,and their awareness level is insufficient;The adoption of the "organic waste composting" model and the commercial organic fertilizer model is relatively high,but in practice,it fails to achieve a high technology adoption rate and technical effect evaluation as expected,and the behavior deviates from the attitude;Third,the risk preference of large-scale farmers is higher than that of ordinary farmers,and the condiment vegetable farmers have more obvious risk preference than the general vegetable farmers;fourth,the necessity of the fertilizer reduction policy for farmers Knowledge,awareness of the necessity of organic fertilizer replacement,experience in organic fertilizer application,the number of surrounding farmers who use organic fertilizer,whether the local demonstration project of organic fertilizer replacement has been carried out,whether the local agricultural production technology training has been organized,and whether the organic fertilizer has been obtained.Application compensation,age,risk preference,family annual income,and planting years have a significant role in promoting the organic fertilizer substitution behavior of vegetable farmers.Fifth,the effect evaluation of the two types of vegetable farmers who actively and passively replaced organic fertilizers was quite different,and the effect evaluation of vegetable farmers who actively replaced organic fertilizers was19.3% higher.The organic fertilizer substitution behavior of vegetable farmers has obvious environmental improvement effect and income growth effect,which proves the effective compatibility between organic fertilizer substitution and total amount control constraints.This is mainly reflected in two aspects: First,the organic fertilizer application levels of A2,A3,and A4 are 8.19%,19.86%,and 30.89% lower than that of A1 respectively.The organic fertilizer application amount and soil fertility have improved significantly relatedly,at the same time,increasing the level of organic fertilizer application can help reduce the amount of chemical fertilizer input and improve soil fertility.Second,the income growth effect of organic fertilizer substitution is obvious,and the rate of return for low-income vegetable farmers is higher.The farmers who replaced organic fertilizers expanded the vegetable planting scale by 0.581 Mu,increased the input of organic fertilizers per mu by 6.798 CNY,and increased the use ratio of agricultural machinery by 34%.The quality improvement effect of organic fertilizer replacement on vegetables increased the average vegetable price by 1.67 CNY.Compensation for organic fertilizer substitution is still an important policy to encourage farmers to replace organic fertilizers.At this stage,organic fertilizer replacement compensation is still at a low level,and vegetable farmers prefer blood transfusion compensation.There are differences in the influence of individual and production and operation factors on the preference of farmers in the choice of alternative compensation methods for organic fertilizers.There is a complementary relationship between farmers choosing physicals compensation and technical compensation,and there is an alternative relationship between choosing cash compensation and price compensation,cash compensation and physicals compensation,price compensation and physicals compensation,and price compensation and technical compensation.Netlogo simulation results show that: the policy combination with the best guiding effect is the mediumintensity total control policy,the medium-intensity organic fertilizer substitution technology promotion policy and the high-intensity organic fertilizer substitution compensation policy;at the same time,the single cash compensation method or the combination of cash compensation and physical compensation has the best guiding effect.In order to further improve the incentive effect of the total amount control on organic fertilizer replacement for farmers,this essay proposes a new idea of realizing the goal of total fertilizer control through market transactions from the perspective of the market.Based on the previous status analysis and empirical test,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for adjusting and optimizing the existing organic fertilizer replacement incentive policies,including: promoting inter-regional exchanges,creating high-quality demonstration areas;building a multi-channel organic fertilizer replacement technology promotion system;Standardize the production and sales of agricultural materials,and promote the certification of green agricultural products;optimize the level of compensation and incentives,and increase the behavioral regulation of farmers. |
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