Research On The Carbon Emission Reduction Effect Of International Climate Change Mitigation-Related Aid

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emission poses a great threat to the natural ecological environment and the development of human society.Extreme weather and climate disasters are increasingly occurring in frequency and intensity,thus,tackling climate change has become the focus of common concern of all countries in the world.The attribute of global public goods of the climate issues determines that international cooperation is the best way to cope with climate change.Based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities",developed countries,as the initiators of greenhouse gas emission throughout the history,have the responsibility and obligation to provide fund,technology and building capacity for developing countries to help deal with global climate change.At the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference,developed countries promised to raise US$ 100 billion annually from 2013 to 2020 to help developing countries cope with climate change,but the statistics by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)show that developed countries have not fully fulfilled their commitments,and there is no consensus on future climate finance support.Agencies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the International Energy Agency(IEA)have estimated the climate finance needs of developing countries.Although the estimates vary,all indicate a huge gap between the current demand and supply of climate finance in developing countries.On the one hand,developed countries are short of willingness for climate assistance,on the other hand,developing countries are increasingly demanding funds,technology and building capacity to achieve carbon emission reduction.Against the background of the increasingly apparent contradiction,this article studies the carbon emission reduction effect of climate change mitigation-related aid as the research object,raises and answers the following questions: What is the overall pattern of international climate change mitigation-related aid? Can climate change mitigation-related aid effectively reduce the carbon emission of recipient countries? What path mechanisms does climate change mitigation-related aid use to affect the carbon emission of recipient countries? How will the different transmission mechanisms affect the carbon emission of recipient countries? Is there a difference? Focusing on the above questions,this dissertation breaks down the path mechanism of international climate change mitigation-related aid affecting the carbon emission of recipient countries into direct effects and indirect effects,the latter mainly include policy effects,technical effects,structural effects and scale effects,constructing a theoretical analysis framework of carbon emission reduction effects of international climate change mitigation-related aid.Under this theoretical framework,empirical research has been conducted on the carbon emission reduction effects and path mechanism of climate change mitigation-related aid from the national level and the project level.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)A project-level climate change mitigation-related aid database with longer time dimension and wider coverage is constructed by using keyword screening method.Based on this database,the overall pattern and dynamic changes of global climate change mitigation-related aid have been clarified: The total amount of climate change mitigation-related aid from 1980 to 2019 was approximately US$697.2 billion,and global climate change mitigation-related aid has shown a developing trend from a slow rise to a rapid rise;The main aid method is loans,and the amount of grants is only about half of the loan;the main bilateral aid countries are Japan,Germany,France,the United Kingdom and the United States in order,and the main multilateral aid agencies are the World Bank,the European Union,and Inter-American Development Bank,Asian Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,etc.;the top five countries receiving the most climate change mitigation-related aid are India,China,Indonesia,Brazil,and Turkey.Asia and Africa are the main inflow regions of international climate change mitigation-related aid;assistance activities are mainly concentrated in energy,transportation,general environmental protection and other sectors.On the whole,international climate change mitigation-related aid has problems such as small scale,lack of stability and sustainability,and deficient grants in aid funds.(2)Based on the theory of carbon emission driving factors,a static and dynamic measurement model is constructed.And the panel data of 89 recipient countries from 1980 to 2018 are used to empirically verify the carbon emission reduction effect of international climate change mitigation-related aid from the national macro level.The results show that international climate change mitigation-related aid can significantly reduce the level of carbon dioxide emission of recipient countries and produce positive emission reduction effects,and the emission reduction effect of multilateral climate change mitigation-related aid is better than that of bilateral climate change mitigation-related aid.The effects of international climate change mitigation-related aid in carbon emission reductions in countries with different levels of aid and different carbon emission levels are heterogeneous: in countries with high levels of aid,international climate change mitigation-related aid can significantly reduce carbon emissions,and in countries with medium and low levels of aid,the carbon emission reduction effect is not significant.International climate mitigation-related aid has a positive carbon emission reduction effect in high-carbon countries,but not significant in low-carbon countries.This research conclusion urges developed countries to fulfill their climate funding commitments,further expand climate mitigation-related aid to developing countries,and appropriately spare more aid funds for countries with higher carbon emission level in order to better exert carbon emission reduction effects.(3)Based on the theoretical mechanism of the carbon emission reduction effect of climate change mitigation-related aid,the mediation effect model is constructed,and the stepwise regression method and the deviation-corrected non-parametric percentile Bootstrap method are used to further test the impact of international climate change mitigation-related aid on the carbon emissions of recipient countries.The results show that the total and direct effects of climate change mitigation-related aid on recipient countries’ carbon emission are significantly negative,effectively reducing the carbon emission of recipient countries.Among the indirect effects,the intermediary effects of climate policy and emission reduction technologies are all shown as "masking effects",that is,the indirect effects of climate policies and emission reduction technologies reduce and affect the direct carbon emission reduction effects of climate change mitigation-related aid.The path survey finds that although climate change mitigation-related aid has promoted the increase in the recipient countries’ climate policies and emission reduction technologies,it has not brought the expected carbon emissions reduction.The “rebound effect” and the lack of ability to cope with climate change in recipient countries are the main reasons for the existence of the "masking effects".Energy structure optimization during the production process has played a positive intermediary role in the relationship between international climate change mitigation-related aid and recipient countries’ carbon emission,and assistance in the field of clean energy has a better effect on the carbon dioxide emission reduction of recipient countries.The mediating effect of economic scale between them is not statistically significant.(4)Following the path mechanism of climate change mitigation-related aid affecting carbon emission,the carbon emission reduction effect of international climate change mitigation-related aid is investigated from the project level.By using project logic model,field investigation,interview and literature research are used to deeply analyze the carbon emission reduction effect of World Bank-Vietnam Forest Sector Development Project.The carbon storage realized by the project is estimated by the method of forest volume expansion.The results show that the carbon storage of trees has reached about 5.62 million tons,and the total carbon storage of forests has reached about 13.7 million tons by the end of the project.The project produces remarkable direct emission reduction effect.Meanwhile,the project has also produced significant policy effects,technical effects and diffusion effects.First of all,the implementation of the project has promoted the Vietnamese government to issue a number of forest protection-related policies and regulations,and enhanced the Vietnamese government’s ability to formulate and implement forest protection policies.Second,the project technical assistance team sums up the local forest planting technology experience,compiles a number of forest planting guides and manuals,promoted more scientific and practical forestry technology in Vietnam,and improves the level of forest planting technology of local farmers.Third,the project has produced a relatively significant diffusion effect in both space and time.The forest plantation has expanded from 4 provinces in the initial project to 6 provinces in the supplementary project.The policy guarantee to 2036 and the high return of forest planting ensure the sustainability of the project in the time dimension.The research conclusions of this dissertation have important policy implications for climate change mitigation-related donors,recipients,and China which is of both these dual identities.In order to better develop the carbon emission reduction effects of climate change mitigation-related aid,donors need to further expand the scale of climate change mitigation-related aid,increase assistance in the field of clean energy,attach importance to assistance for climate change building capacity and the coordination of emission reduction and development.Recipients should seek extensive climate assistance from all parties,improve and flexibly use climate policy tools,strengthen and promote public awareness of low-carbon consumption.As for China,on the one hand,as the recipient,we should actively strive to expand the scale of climate assistance to China and strengthen the building capacity of climate policy formulation and implementation;on the other hand,as a donor,it is necessary to actively promote South-South cooperation on climate change and attach importance to the evaluation of the effectiveness of foreign climate change mitigation-related aid.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows: Firstly,it uses the keyword method to screen out climate change mitigation-related aid projects,and the overall pattern of climate change mitigation-related aid is clarified from the aspects of aid scale,aid methods,aid sources,aid flow and aid sector distribution.Secondly,the intermediary transmission mechanism of climate policy,emission reduction technology,production structure and economic scale between international climate change mitigation-related aid and carbon emissions is tested from the national macro-level,and the impact path of climate change mitigation-related aid on carbon emissions of recipient countries is systematically clarified,which marginally supplement the existing empirical research.Thirdly,a project of climate change mitigation-related aid is inspected on the spot,and the direct and indirect effects of carbon emission reduction of climate change mitigation-related aid are analyzed from the level of the project,which provides provides micro-empirical support for the evaluation of emission reduction effect,mechanism analysis and policy optimization of climate change mitigation-related aid.