An Economic Assessment Of The Impact Of Climate Change On The Gambia’s Agriculture Sector

Background and Objective: Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival negatively impact many sectors but the agriculture sector is the most adversely impacted.In impoverished countries like The Gambia economic costs of climate change are colossal thus diverting much-needed funds for development into strategies for coping,mitigating and combating the scourge of climate change,if the agriculture sector should remain viable for future generations.The study attempt to establish a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model for Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops,livestock and sea-level rise.Thus,proffering sound policy suggestions on how to economically manage the impacts of climate change in The Gambia.To further assess the impact of climate change on the Gambia agriculture sector.The study also used a multi-market model approach,with the base year of 2015,to assess the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector,given three scenarios – hydro-meteorological impact,agricultural productivity impact and their combined total effect.Methods: The study used a CGE model with a range of climate change impacts [Global Circulation Models(GCMs)with Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs),The Denitrification-Decomposition model(DNDC),Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment(DIVA)& Livestock] models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector.The Social Accounting Matrix(SAM)calibrates the results from the various models,thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium-term and long-term effects of climate change on Gambia’s agriculture sector.Findings: The baseline results indicate the “status quo” showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to the limited investment in the sector over the years.Hence the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change.When the model factored in climate change in the medium-term(2055)and long-term(2085),the macroeconomic indicators of Gross Domestic Product(GDP),National Savings,Wages,Disposable Income and CPI deteriorated,thus illustrating the vulnerability of the Gambian economy to climate change effects.The consumption of groundnuts,cattle and fish will decline by 5%,5% and 4% respectively in the long term.However,the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period.This would have a negative influence on the agricultural competitiveness of The Gambia,thus further worsening the country’s poverty,deprivation,and income gap rates.The results for international trade show that exportation will decline whiles importation will increase over time,thereby exacerbating the food dependency of the country.The general price level for agricultural commodities will increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085 thus eroding the purchasing power of consumers to effectively demand agricultural commodities and by extension demand for other commodities.Generally,the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy.The multi-market results show a decline in demand for food across The Gambia.Seed demand will increase whilst animal feed demand will decline over time.Crop yields for groundnuts(the main cash crop)and rice(the main staple crop)by 2040 will decline by 11.09% and 13.32% respectively,given their combined total effect.The Gambia will continue to be dependent on the importation of basic food necessities,given its food trade deficits over time.Average food prices will increase by 16.2%.The multi-market result corroborates the foregoing results that climate change’s impact on The Gambia’s agriculture sector would hamper economic growth and development.Thus accelerating human misery and starvation as the impact worsens with time.Conclusion: The Gambia will not be able to attain food self-sufficiency,rather food insecurity will continually be acute and grim leading to an increase in domestic prices/inflation over time.Which will lead to a decrease in production and consumption.The study catalogued the need for The Gambian government to increase investment in the agriculture sector,especially in crops and livestock that are resilient to adverse climate conditions.The caveat of the study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies.Thus,the novelty of the study,which holistically analyzed the devastating impact of climate change on the agriculture sector,with spillover effects on the entire economy of The Gambia.