Research On The Impact Of Climate Change On Green Total Factor Productivity Of Agriculture In China

As an agricultural powerhouse,the "three rural issues" have always been the focus of the Party and the country’s work.The 20th National Congress of the Party first proposed the construction of a strong agricultural country,marking a new stage in which China’s agriculture has shifted from pursuing increased production to pursuing high-quality development.The construction of a strong agricultural country requires a comprehensive improvement in the overall factor productivity of agriculture.In 2023,the Central Document No.1 further pointed out that green agricultural development is an important manifestation supporting the construction of a strong agricultural country.Agricultural green total factor productivity,as a comprehensive indicator that can measure both economic and environmental benefits,has been mostly used as a proxy variable for agricultural green development in existing literature,exploring the influencing factors of China’s agricultural green development from the perspective of environmental regulations and other aspects.As a climate change-sensitive region in the world,changes in climate conditions will inevitably affect agricultural production conditions and thus impact the agricultural green total factor productivity.However,existing literature on the impact of climate change on agricultural green total factor productivity in China is relatively scarce.Therefore,based on data from 31 provincial-level administrative units from 2001 to 2021,this study first uses the super-efficiency SBM-GML index model to calculate the agricultural green total factor productivity as a proxy variable for agricultural green development.It analyzes the evolution of China’s agricultural green total factor productivity from both the temporal trend and spatial difference perspectives.Secondly,it explores how climate change affects agricultural green total factor productivity from the perspective of climate change.Thirdly,it investigates the regional differences in the impact of climate change on agricultural green total factor productivity and the transmission mechanisms of this impact in accordance with the comprehensive geographical regional division method and the division method of grain production functional zones.Finally,it analyzes whether the increase in agricultural research input and the improvement in agricultural insurance coverage have a mitigating effect on the negative impact of climate change on agricultural green total factor productivity.The research results indicate the following:Firstly,based on the measurement of China’s agricultural green total factor productivity using the super-efficiency SBM-GML index model.the main driving force behind the continuous growth of China’s agricultural green total factor productivity is technological progress,which shows a decreasing trend from east to west.Secondly,the baseline empirical results show that an increase in temperature significantly negatively affects China’s agricultural green total factor productivity,while increased precipitation significantly enhances it.Furthermore,the results of the threshold effect test show that temperature has a single threshold effect on agricultural green total factor productivity.Thirdly,the results of the analysis of regional heterogeneity show that an increase in temperature has a significant negative impact on agricultural green total factor productivity in North China,Southwest China,and Northwest China,but in Central China,an increase in temperature has a positive promoting effect on agricultural green total factor productivity.On the other hand,an increase in annual precipitation promotes agricultural green total factor productivity in North China and Northwest China,while it has a negative impact in Central China.The analysis of heterogeneity in grain production functional zones shows that non-grain production areas are more susceptible to the effects of climate change compared to grainproducing regions.Additionally,the results of the mediation analysis for different regions indicate that agricultural output plays a mediating role in Central China and Northwest China,agricultural structural changes play a mediating role in Central China and Southwest China,and in terms of the effects of input structure,machinery input acts as a mediator in Central China and Northwest China,while land input acts as a mediator in Central China,Northwest China,and Southwest China.Finally,the analysis of moderation effects shows that improvements in agricultural technology stock and the depth of agricultural insurance help alleviate the negative impact of climate change on agricultural green total factor productivity.The above conclusions reveal that China’s agricultural green total factor productivity is significantly affected by climate change,and this impact exhibits significant regional differences.Relevant departments should accurately identify local climate change conditions and respond to climate change impacts in a targeted manner.Efforts should be made to promote the construction of climate monitoring infrastructure and popularize climate knowledge,strengthen farmers’ adaptive behaviors to cope with climate change,increase investment in agricultural research,and actively promote the development of agricultural insurance to fully leverage the mitigating effects of both factors on the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural green total factor productivity.