Sustainability Study Of Manufacturing Trade Networks And Freight Structure Optimisation

The world is currently facing unprecedented changes and challenges,with the rise of international protectionism and unilateralism,rapid changes in the international trade landscape,transformation of the global governance system,ongoing public health crises,and intensified competition among countries in the manufacturing industry.Manufacturing has become the main battleground for countries to build their strategic advantages for development.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,significant changes have occurred in the global trade structure and international transportation patterns,with the participation of emerging economies such as China in international trade,leading to the transfer of resource consumption and energy emissions,which have had a significant impact on the environmental resources of countries around the world.Based on the analytical perspective of the concept of sustainable development,this paper uses the quantitative literature,dynamic meta-network,Markov model and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis methods to explore the logical mechanism of the development of freight structure at this stage through the evaluation of the existing research results of sustainable manufacturing industry.Combined with the current theory and practice of international trade,the study analyses the evolution process of manufacturing trade pattern and the evolution law of freight structure under the technology and scale effect.This study not only traces and portrays the spatial and temporal pattern of the global manufacturing industry in the past 20 years,predicts the optimisation and adjustment of China’s future freight transport structure,summarises and concludes the practical path of sustainable freight transport,further deepens the significance of the goal,but also provides a reliable scientific basis for other regions to promote the sustainable process of freight transport.Based on theoretical and empirical analyses,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:The exponential growth of high-quality research results on manufacturing sustainability over the past 20 years is in line with the urgent need to resolve the conflict between social development and environmental resource issues.On the vast research base,we not only discover the limitations and gaps in the existing related research fields,but also explore the research theories and methods that support this paper.According to the results of bibliometric analysis as the source,the core research idea of technology effect and environmental issues(carbon)are clarified,which provides scientific and objective data support for the subsequent research.The technological structure of manufactured goods is closely related to carbon emissions,and technological effects generally reduce the carbon emissions of manufactured goods.The proportion of carbon emissions from low-tech manufactured goods is highest and remains slowly increasing,while the proportion of carbon emissions from medium-tech manufactured goods is gradually decreasing,and the proportion of high-tech manufactured goods is very low.Technological progress and efficiency are widely recognized as key factors in improving the level of manufacturing.From a sustainable perspective,a reasonable classification of manufacturing is helpful for accurately tracking the trade network changes and carbon emissions trends of manufacturing.Regenerate response International trade is able to portray in detail the timeseries evolution of the manufacturing landscape,involving multiple elements such as trading entities,events,organizations,and technologies,as well as multiple clusters of complex effects between elements.The meta-network model is suitable for international trade analysis studies with a large and complex number of elements.The meta-network model covers nodal elements such as subjects,knowledge,resources,tasks,and events in the organizational system and the multi-modal multicluster relationships formed between the nodal elements,with a time-series network as the core and basis for dynamical analysis of the network structure of complex relationships.Based on the meta-network,international manufacturing trade dynamic meta network for low-technology(LT),medium-technology(MT)and hightechnology(HT)manufactured goods are constructed,incorporating 50 trade entities,7 events and 1 organization-related data information,laying a solid foundation for subsequent practical application and analysis.This article proposes an improved neural network algorithm for analyzing complex dynamic meta-network models of international trade.Trade in manufactured goods has maintained rapid growth,and the growth curves of manufactured goods with different technological contents have shown differences.MT goods account for the highest share of manufacturing trade,followed by HT goods and LT goods at the bottom.The dynamic meta-network of manufacturing trade portrays a complex and diverse trade pattern over a 20-year period,not only observing the dynamics of the entire network at the macro level,but also specifically tracking local changes in parts of the network.There is often a vulnerability to dynamic meta-networks among outward-looking economies with a fragile and homogeneous industrial structure.During the last 20 years,China has been one of the most serious and persistent entities in the three dynamic metanetworks,becoming an emerging leader.This study reveals three dynamic metanetwork leaders of strong clique: global LT manufacturing rapidly shifts to developing countries;the U.S.continues to dominate MT manufacturing,with China following later;and China maintains its leadership in HT manufacturing and occupies a steadily growing international market share.As a result,the rate of evolution of trade patterns has accelerated significantly.It is found that the volume of manufacturing trade in the LT and MT networks is positively related to carbon emissions,whereas the trade flow in the HT network brings advanced technologies that contribute to emission reductions.North America,Europe and Asia to become the international freight "threelegged" spatial pattern,China’s position will continue to be prominent.Freight structure is easily affected by the external environment,combined with the United States,Europe,Japan and other developed countries,the evolution of the freight structure of the law,with the help of Markov theory to build China’s freight structure changes in the prediction model.Pipeline and air transport are more independent,while there is substitutability among road,railway and waterway.Reducing the proportion of road transport,increasing the proportion of railway and waterway transport,and promoting the development of public-railway and public-waterway intermodal transport is the direction of future strategic adjustment.The country’s freight transport structure will reach a steady state around 2035,when the share of road,waterway and rail transport is expected to remain at about 30%.Transport is the second largest source of carbon emissions globally,especially road,air and sea transport.Using optimal control theory to construct a freight restructuring path model,the simulation shows that priority will be given to the development of waterways and railways in the next five years,followed by pipeline and air transport.The growth rates of freight turnover and modal share have an impact on the optimisation of freight structure,with increasing the market share growth rates of rail and waterway transport being key.Forecasts of freight energy consumption show that,at constant energy intensity,the increase in energy consumption is equal to the increase in freight turnover;a decrease in energy intensity is followed by a decrease in carbon emissions.Optimising the structure of freight transport contributes to lower energy consumption and reduced carbon emissions.A single factor cannot constitute a necessary condition for sustainable international freight logistics,nor can it be a sufficient condition for sustainable international freight logistics.There are nine different paths to achieving sustainable international freight logistics,each of which is composed of a combination of factors.Among the six configurations,the presence of trade in manufactured goods and R&D expenditures further emphasizes their important role in enhancing the sustainability of international freight logistics.In the absence of scale effects,R&D expenditures play an absolutely dominant role.In addition,the prevalence of the Internet has also strongly promoted the sustainable development of freight logistics.