Research On The Impact And Early Warning Of Air Pollution On The Health Of People In Typical Areas Of Jiangsu Provinc

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization,the impact of air pollution on public health has caused great attention.This essay took typical cities in Jiangsu province as objects and used meteorological data,air pollution data,data recording cause of death,pulmonary function data of children,data on the influenza-like illness of infectious diseases,data on fine particulate matter,etc.to estimate the impact of air pollutions on public health in Jiangsu.The acute impact of air pollutants on influenza-like illness and children’s pulmonary function,the classification of diseases attributed to PM_2.5,PM₁₀,NO_2,and future scenarios,and the number of excess deaths and excess carcinogenic risk of benzo[a]pyrene in PM_2.5 were also discussed.To provide scientific evidence for making policies that can reduce the risks to general and specific populations caused by air pollution,an Air Quality Health Index（AQHI）early warning system was established based on the study.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）The impact of PM_2.5,PM₁₀,and other air pollutants on influenza-like illness showed an acute effect trend.The air pollution exposure period associated with the onset of influenza-like illness was 3 days before the onset,which was consistent with the incubation period of the influenza virus.The impact of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ on the incidence of influenza-like illness in the population of 5-14 years old was greater than 0-4 years old and PM_2.5 had the greatest impact on the 15–59 years old age group,which was helpful to understand the adverse health effects of air pollution and the causes of influenza-like illness.Short-term exposure to PM_2.5 may affect children’s pulmonary function and this impact of PM_2.5on pulmonary function had a significant lag effect,which indicated that children should take health protection measures even one or two days after the end of the air pollution incident.（2）The increment of the concentration of PM_2.5,O₃,and NO₂ in Jiangsu might lead to an increase in total non-accidental mortality,cardiovascular disease mortality,and respiratory system disease mortality of residents.At the average level of the 13 cities,every interquartile increased in PM_2.5,O₃,and NO₂ concentrations caused non-accidental mortality of residents to increase by 1.10%（95%CI:0.66%～1.54%）,0.59%（95%CI:0.18%～1.00%）and 2.00%（95%CI:1.29%～2.72%）respectively;cardiovascular disease mortality increased by 1.01%（95%CI:0.63%～1.38%）,0.66%（95%CI:0.02%～1.30%）and 1.62%（95%CI:1.00%～2.23%）respectively;respiratory system mortality increased by 1.09%（95%CI:0.35%～1.82%）,0.44%（95%CI:-0.29%～1.16%）and 2.75%（95%CI:1.42%～4.08%）respectively.PM_2.5 had the strongest immediate effect,O₃ had the strongest two-day lag effect,and NO₂ had the strongest one-day lag effect.In the single-pollutant model,the strongest effect of PM_2.5 and O₃-8h on non-accidental deaths was in Taizhou,while the greatest effect of PM_2.5 and NO₂ on cardiovascular death was in Huaian and the greatest effect of O3-8h was in Taizhou.The largest effect of PM2.5 and O3-8h on the death of respiratory diseases is Zhenjiang,and the largest NO2effect is in Suqian,which indicates areas with relatively high health risks from PM2.5,O3-8h,and NO2 pollution,which is targeted for the next step.Provide a basis for environmental governance and the formulation of relevant policies.（3）Population deaths could be reduced by lowering the concentrations of air pollutants.Under the current pollution situation,the number of excess non-accidental deaths attributed to PM_2.5,PM₁₀,and NO₂ in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2018 was 66566,163487,and 102176,respectively.The most significant impact of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ on the number of excess deaths was in Xuzhou,while the least was in Lianyungang and Zhenjiang.The most significant impact of NO₂ on the number of excess deaths was in Suzhou,while the least was in Huaian.Based on2018,when the annual average concentration of PM_2.5 dropped from 47 ug/m³ to 45ug/m³,the annual non-accidental excess deaths were reduced by 2,357.When the annual average concentration of PM_2.5 decreased to 40ug/m³,the number of non-accidental excess deaths decreased by 8,293 people.When the concentration of PM_2.5 reached the standard limit set by WHO with 25 ug/m³,the number of non-accidental excess deaths decreased by 25,924.Among the 15 monitoring points in 13 cities in Jiangsu Province,11 monitoring points B[a]P had an excess carcinogenic risk between 10^-6-10^-5,which were all greater than 1×10^-6,suggesting that B[a]P had a positive effect on the population.The highest potential excessive carcinogenic risk was in the Quanshan District of Xuzhou,followed by the Suyu District of Suqian.It is suggested that these two monitoring points should arouse enough attention to the carcinogenic risk of benzo[a]pyrene in ambient air PM_2.5,and it is necessary to further investigate the source of pollution and strengthen source control.（4）The Jiangsu Provincial Air Quality Health Index Early Warning Platform was established.The air pollutants introduced into the Air Quality Health Index（AQHI）early warning system include PM_2.5,O₃,NO₂,and SO₂.The coefficients of exposure-response models of air pollutants to non-accidental deaths in 272 cities across China were used.The verification results of the three methods all show that the AQI index and the AQHI index constructed in this study are not mutually exclusive,the overall trend is consistent,and the health risk indicator ability of AQHI is higher than that of AQI.Sensitivity analysis shows that the model is robust.Based on the platform’s grading index,health reminders for different groups of people will be issued promptly to reduce health hazards caused by air pollution and protect vulnerable groups.This study suggests the possible causes of the onset of influenza-like cases.It reveals that after the end of the air pollution incident,we still need to pay attention to the protection measures for children’s health.It is revealed that the reduction of pollutant concentration can significantly reduce the impact on death,and measures to reduce the concentration of pollutants have good health benefits.It suggests areas where the carcinogenic risk of benzo[a]pyrene needs to be focused.The health risk indicator ability of the Jiangsu Province Air Quality Health Index is higher than that of AQI,guides the public to adopt health protection strategies against air pollution from the perspective of health and disease prevention,and provides technical support for the construction of public health in Jiangsu.