Construction Of Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) Based On The Comparison Of Multi-model And Multi-source Data

Objective:By comparing the combination of different models and data sources,the impact of air pollutants on human health is discussed,and then an index is constructed so that the public can more intuitively understand the health hazards caused by air pollution,so as to provide a scientific basis for early risk warning of air pollution and prompt people to avoid health risks.Methods:Daily air pollutants,meteorological data,daily death and daily outpatient number of non-accident diseases,respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases were collected in Guangzhou during 2014-2018,trend analysis and correlation analysis were conducted,and the number of days exceeding the standard of air pollutants was statistically analyzed.The Generalized Additive Model(GAM)and Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM)are used to analyze time series to establish the exposure response relationship between Air pollution and Health outcomes.Four combinations were constructed for the daily death and outpatient number of different populations with different diseases to calculate excess risk.We select the best combination and refer to the Air Quality Health Index of Canada and Hong Kong,and then construct the AQHI of different groups in Guangzhou and verify them.Results:1.The study on the relationship between air pollution and health exposure shows that air pollution has a certain lag effect on different population groups,and the maximum cumulative lag effect is larger than the maximum one-day lag effect,and the time is later;The health effect values of "DLNM+outpatient" combination on different diseases and different population groups were higher than those of the other three combinations.The maximum cumulative lag effect of PM2.5 on the outpatient volume of the whole population,people with cardiopulmonary disease and sensitive population appeared at 7 days lag(lag07),7 days lag(lag07)and 4 days lag(lag04),respectively.When the Inter-quartile Range(IQR)was increased,RR values were 1.057(1.032-1.083),1.080(1.052-1.108)and 1.049(1.021-1.077).The maximum cumulative lag effect of SO2 on the outpatient volume of the whole population and people with cardiopulmonary disease appeared at a lag of 7 days(lag07).When an IQR was added,RR values were 1.040(1.016-1.065)and 1.059(1.033-1.086),respectively.The effect of SO2 on the outpatient volume of the sensitive population was not obvious.The maximum cumulative lag effect of NO2 on the outpatient service of the whole population,people with cardiopulmonary disease and sensitive people all appeared at a lag of 7 days(lag07),when the pollutant increased by an IQR,RR values were 1.071(1.048-1.095),1.092(1.066-1.118)and 1.050(1.021-1.081),respectively.There was no statistical significance in the maximum cumulative lag effect of O3 on the outpatient visits of the whole population,the population with cardiopulmonary disease and the sensitive population.2.Excess risk Results show that the impact of short-term exposure to PM2.5,SO2 and NO2 on health is mainly reflected in outpatient,while the impact of O3 exposure on population health is mainly reflected in death.By comparing GAM and DLNM,it can be seen that the excess risk reflected by the former(ER-GAM)is lower than the excess risk reflected by the latter(ER-DLNM),and DLNM more sensitively reflects the damaging effect of air pollution on population health.R2 results were the same as above."Combination 4" was selected to construct AQHI for the whole population,people with cardiopulmonary disease and sensitive people.3.The study on the predictive ability of AQHI and Air Quality Index(AQI)on health of the three groups shows that when AQHI increases an IQR,The number of outpatient visits for non-accident diseases,people with cardiopulmonary disease and the elderly increased by 7.46%(4.73%-10.26%),4.30%(1.82%-6.83%)and 4.20%(1.53%-6.93%),respectively.When AQI increased by an IQR,The number of outpatient visits for non-accidental diseases,for people with cardiopulmonary disease,and for the elderly increased by 5.37%(2.89%-7.91%),3.86%(1.03%-6.76%)and 3.64%(0.97%-6.37%),respectively.Compared with AQI,AQHI has a greater impact on the outpatient volume of different diseases and different populations,suggesting that AQHI has a higher ability to indicate health risks than AQI.Conclusions:DLNM can well quantify the harmful effect of air pollution on health.Compared with death,the number of daily outpatient visits can more sensitively reflect the impact of air pollution on population health.During the study period,the proportion of AQHI in low risk level was higher in different populations,and the AQHI value of people with cardiopulmonary disease and sensitive population was larger than that of the whole population on the same day,and the risk level was also higher.Compared with AQI,AQHI of the three groups of population can reflect air quality more comprehensively and accurately and guide public health travel.