| The continuous exhaustion of non-renewable primary energy and the increasingly severe environmental degradation have seriously hindered the rapid development of global economy and society.The comprehensive development strategy of “multienergy complementation and coordinated optimization” of renewable energy has led to that the comprehensive utilization technologies of multi renewables involving cascaded hydro-PV-PS power generation joint power generation are booming.The joint complementary power generation of cascade small hydropower clusters and distributed photovoltaics in areas rich in hydropower resources in Southwest China has undergone profound changes in its joint optimal dispatching due to the multidimensional uncertainties and complex coupling characteristics.Traditional methods for power generation dispatching are no longer adequate,and a large number of unconventional dispatching requirements have been generated,which has brought huge challenges to the dispatching of the power generation side and the grid side of power system.This thesis originates from the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0905200)-Research and application demonstration on complementary combined power generation technology for distributed PV and cascade hydropower,and is guided by the actual dispatching requirements of cascade hydro-PV-PS complementary power system,focusing on the multi-dimensional uncertainties and complex coupling characteristics of cascaded hydro-PV-PS,and the research is carried out centering on key and core issue: optimal joint dispatching of cascade hydro-PV-PS complementary power generation systems.The main contents of the research are as follows:(1)Researches on the analysis of the multi-dimensional uncertainties and complex coupling characteristics of the cascade hydro-PV-PS complementary system are being carried out.Based on the characteristics of hydro-PV-PS resources,the physical architecture and complex operating characteristics,the multi-dimensional complementary models of cascade hydro-PV-PS are established;on the basis of indepth analysis of the influence law of the system’s uncertainties and complex coupling characteristics,the joint simulation method of multi-state water-solar-load probabilistic chronological data based on Markov chain-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is introduced;the water-solar-load uncertain production data generating method based on multi-scale chronological modeling and estimation is proposed;and an improved simple judging method of inter-stage output allocation of the cascade hydropower system is presented.The application results show that the proposed methods have significant effects on restraining the influence of the multi-dimensional uncertainties and complex coupling characteristics of hydro-PV-PS system,and provide strong support for the research of integrated planning and joint optimization dispatching of cascade hydro-PV-PS systems.(2)The evaluation of rapid regulation performance of PS in cascade hydro-PVPS hybrid system is studied.Taking the real-time random fluctuation of PV with the largest demand for rapid regulation as the main application scenario,the evaluation of regulating performance and the configuration of regulating capacity of PS are further studied.Mainly considering the constraints of the minimum duration of operating status transition and the maximum capacity of reservoirs,a “rule-based” method for the evaluation and configuration of the rapid regulating performance and capacity is proposed.The feasibility and the effectiveness of the quantitative evaluation method for the rapid regulating capacity of PS are verified by the application example of regulating the real-time fluctuation of PV,and the configuration relationship of regulating capacity was also obtained.The robustness of the method is verified by the analysis from four aspects around the results of the application example.(3)For the reliable complementary joint optimal dispatching for cascade hydroPV-PS considering the multi-dimensional uncertainties and complex coupling,a joint optimal dispatching method based on PCPS(probabilistic sequential production simulation,PCPS)is proposed.The PCPS methods for cascade hydropower,PV power plants and pumped storage stations adapting to their resource output characteristics are respectively proposed,and a comprehensive joint sequential production simulation process for the cascade hydro-PV-PS system is established.Based on the cascade hydro-PV-PS joint dispatching scheme set,a dual-objective joint dispatching schemes optimization model balancing dispatching reliability and economic performance is proposed and the MOQPSO algorithm is introduced to calculate the optimal Pareto solution set.Application example has verified the computational efficiency and feasibility of the proposed joint dispatching method,and the method provides a new technical approach for the cascade hydro-PV-PS complementary system to achieve joint optimal dispatching in multi-dimensional uncertain environment.(4)Regarding to the one-sided and rough description of the multi-dimensional uncertainties problem in cascade hydro-PV-PS power generation dispatching process,a joint optimization dispatching method based on data-driven DRO(distributed robust optimization,DRO)is proposed.A two-stage data-driven DRO dispatching model for cascaded hydro-PV-PS is presented,and the efficient CCG algorithm is introduced to solve the model iteratively.Validation of the calculation examples shows that the proposed dispatching method can effectively take the multi-dimensional uncertainties into account,and an optimal economic dispatching scheme can be quickly obtained.It can achieve the dispatching performance of the PCPS method and presents a better calculating efficiency.In addition,advantages of stochastic optimization and robust optimization algorithms have been integrated organically,and it is regarded as an efficient and practical joint optimization dispatching method.(5)For the joint generation dispatching issue that how to meet the multidimensional complementary needs and to maximize the benefits of each generation entity to stimulate and mobilize its complementary power generation enthusiasm,a two-stage day-ahead joint dispatching method combining initial game dispatching and multi-round rolling dispatching adjustment is proposed with the goal of maximum revenue of each entity.In the first stage,each power output located at Bayesian Nash equilibrium is obtained based on the day-ahead Cournot game dispatching model.In the second stage,high and low prices direct matching strategy is introduced to facilitate the internal deviations transfer and delivery in the complementary system.The final joint dispatching scheme is formed by the superposition of initial game dispatching and multi-round rolling dispatching adjustment.Validation of the calculation examples shows that the proposed method can effectively account for the profits of each power generation entity in the hybrid power system,and the multi-dimensional uncertainties of day-ahead dispatching are considered maximumly,and then formulate a practical joint dispatching scheme quickly on this basis. |
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