Conjugate Mechanism And Regulation Between Urbanization And Ecological Environment In The Urban Agglomeration On The Northern Slope Of The Tianshan Mountains

The urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains(UANSTM)is one of the two boarder urban agglomerations in China,and its high-quality development is constrained by the ecological environment.The topic "conjugate mechanism and regulation of urbanization and eco-environment in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains" was investigated in this thesis,The paper analyzes the conjugate relationship between urbanization and eco-environment in urban agglomerations,which is not only in line with the high-priority research theme of earth system science in the next decade,but also meets the actual needs of high-quality development in the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt.The related concepts and theoretical basis of the research on the conjugation of urbanization and eco-environment were sorted out and reviewed,the conjugate system and its theoretical framework were proposed and analyzed,and the conjugation mechanism and rule were revealed,which were applied to the high-quality development and transformation of the UANSTM.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)A new theoretical concept and a new theoretical model of the conjugate mechanism of urbanization and eco-environment were developed.The conjugate evolution characteristics between urbanization and eco-environment were first identified,the key factors were recognized,following by determining the stress risks,interpreting the conjugate mechanism and rules,then a multi-scenario dynamic conjugate(MSDC)model was established,and the adaptive regulation polices for high-quality development were made.Moreover,a scientific framework for the conjugate mechanism and regulation of urbanization and eco-environment based on the "Future Earth" plan was designed.And the typicality,significance,and priority of research in urban agglomeration were pointed out.(2)The author identified quantitatively the conjugate system and stress risks of urbanization and eco-environment in the UANSTM.Two conjugate subsystems including urbanization subsystem and eco-environment subsystem between 2007 and2018 were studied,considering seven humanity elements(population,economy,infrastructure,society,innovation,development,and policy)and their 32 response indexes as well as six natural elements(water,soil,climate,energy,environment,and ecology)and their 25 response indexes.The evolution characteristics of each subsystem,factor,and characteristic index were comprehensively investigated;then,the conjugate effect between urbanization and eco-environment was explored,the key factors were recognized,and the stress risk status of was assessed and early warning.The study found that the stress risks of urbanization and eco-environmental system in the UANSTM gradually decreased from 2007 to 2018,and experienced a benign transformation process from the "dangerous" state of unsustainable development,to the "cautious" state of basically full carrying capacity,and finally to the "safe" state of high-quality development.(3)The author illustrated the conjugate mechanism and principle of urbanization and eco-environment.Firstly,based on grey correlation analysis,the interactive conjugation degree and its driving factors of urbanization and eco-environment in the UANSTM were identified,and the driving mechanism of the two subsystems was analyzed.The theoretical mechanism and action forms of the conjugate rule of urbanization and eco-environment were explained,and the universal rules of the conjugate effects,such as inverted "U",logarithmic and double exponential curves,were summarized.The conjugate rule of urbanization and eco-environment of the UANSTM showed "U",which was expressed by further function fitting equations.(4)The author simulated the high-quality development plan of the UANSTM in multiple scenarios.The simulation scenarios with multi-module integration,multi-factor conjugation,multi-policy variable combination,multi-threshold parameter regulation,and multi-management objective demand,and the multi-scenario dynamic conjugate(MSDC)model were constructed,the evolution characteristics of the urban agglomeration system and key factors from 2019 to 2035 were dynamically simulated,the sensitivity policies were identified,and the adaptive regulation polices were proposed to promote the high-quality development transformation of the UANSTM.