An Investigation On Influence Characteristics And Mechanism Of Streetcar Development Decision Making Based On Functional Orientation

The development of streetcar can be traced back to the 20 th century.After the rapid development and gradual decline of the era,with the technological innovation,the streetcar re-emerged on the stage of the major cities with brand-new technical characteristics and functions.At present,streetcar is still in the stage of exploration and research in China,and the theoretical system of streetcar research is not perfect,especially the research on the functional positioning and planning decision-making level of streetcar development is insufficient.In the face of the unclear development positioning of streetcar in China,the development level is uneven.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to make a systematic study on the factors and mechanism behind the decision-making of the development of streetcar due to the fact that the evaluation of the development is mixed and the urgent need to promote the scientific and orderly development of streetcar,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to make a systematic study on the factors and mechanism behind the decision-making of the development of streetcar.Based on the key project of National Natural Science Foundation of China “Basic Theory and Key Technology of Efficiency Improvement for Multi-modal Public Transport System in Modem City”(No.51338003),this thesis focuses on the influence mechanism of function orientation on decision behavior of streeetcar development.In order to build the influence model of streetcar development decision-making process and provide theoretical guidance for the guidance of streetcar planning and design based on functional positioning,the following five aspects of the thesis are carried out.(1)Investigation on the influence of streetcar development decision behavior.The survey is divided into two parts: interview survey and questionnaire survey.(1)The main purpose of the interview survey is to obtain the potential factors affecting the development of streetcar.Attitudes,opinions and suggestions on urban streetcar development as well as reflections,opinions and comments on existing streetcar cases are taken as key information to obtain potential variables of influencing factors.The semi-structured interview method of management disciplines is used to conduct interview survey to comprehensively obtain written information and ideas from various sources.Following the principle of "all is data",the information and data of latent variables affecting the development of streetcar are widely collected and obtained.(2)Questionnaire survey is to embed the acquired influence latent variables into SP and RP questionnaire survey on the basis of interview survey analysis,with the main purpose of obtaining the measurement system and quantitative effect of the influence factor latent variables.The questionnaire is divided into four parts according to travel objectives and survey themes,which are basic information,preference characteristics in commuting context,preference characteristics in non-commuting context,and latent variables of decision influence.Through online survey,the influence data of streetcar development decision-making preference and decision-making process based on different streetcar function positioning strategies are obtained.According to travel mode and travel purpose,three kinds of heterogeneity sample are analysed,in order to provide basic data support for the study of the decision-making preference of streetcar development and the influencing mechanism of the decision-making process under the influence of function positioning.(2)Study on the latent variables of influencing factors based on grounded theory.Through Semi-structured interview method,the data of the streetcar development is obtained.And through an open coding,axial coding and selective coding process,four factors affecting the external environment of the streetcar development decision-making,which are the technical features,urban property,social reference,policy system are identified,as well as five internal psychological factors that affect the development decision of streetcar,such as results consciousness,attitude,functional orientation perception,goal intention and decision intention.In view of the research on the main categories,concepts and other theoretical elements in the deductive process of grounded theory,the latent variables of various influencing factors were refined in multi-dimensions to identify the main effect components of the latent variables of various influencing factors,which laid a foundation for the subsequent research on the influence mechanism of the decision-making process of streetcar development.(3)The impacts of functional orientation on the decision-making preference of streetcar development.Three types of heterogeneous sample data obtained from the questionnaire survey.From four dimensions,which are travel mode(public transportation and public transportation),travel demand(commuter travel and non-commuter travel),the types of function orientation strategy pattern(transit function positioning and non-transit function positioning)and streetcar technology features(the construction features and operating characteristics),the individual characteristics of streetcar development decision-making preferences are compared and excavated.In view of the multi-layer nested structure characteristics,the Multilevel Logit Model was introduced to establish the streetcar development decision-making preference models under traffic function orientation and non-traffic function orientation respectively.Model parameters are estimated through three kinds of heterogeneous groups,aimed to identify the influence degree of decision-making participants on the difference of decision-making preference for streetcar development,and to reveal the basic properties,environment,family attribute and function orientation attributes of streetcar development decision preference characteristics influence mechanism.In addition,it is also aimed to explore the cross-level interaction and synergistic effect and rules among different attributes.(4)The influence mechanism of function orientation on the decision-making process of streetcar development.Based on the research paradigm of decision-making process,a conceptual model of the influencing mechanism of streetcar development decision-making process based on function localization was proposed.Mathematical analysis is carred out through the Structural Equation Model.The heterogeneous sample data were used to fit the conceptual model,and the hypothesis of the action path of latent variables of influencing factors was tested.The aim of all these processes is to verify the adaptability of the conceptual model to the decision-making process of the actual development of streetcars under different functional positioning strategies.Based on the results of model fitting and hypothesis testing,the mechanism of streetcar development decision-making behavior based on function location is explained,and the main and indirect effects of the latent variables of each influencing factor on decision-making behavior are identified.All the above analysis results are from three aspects,which are the direct action mechanism of potential variables of external factors and development decision-making behavior,the mediating indirect action mechanism between potential variables of external factors and internal factors,and the regulating mechanism of potential variables of external factors and internal factors on development decision-making behavior of streetcar.The aim of the analysis progress is to adjust and optimize the conceptual model.(5)Prediction of functional positioning strategies’ impacts on the decision-making behavior of streetcar development.By taking the right-of-way model and line-network structure as the choice limbs of streetcar development decision-making behavior,the prediction of functional positioning strategies’ impacts on the decision-making behavior of streetcar development was carried out.By integrating the decision-making process model of streetcar development into the framework of decision-making behavior prediction model,the integrated decision-making behavior coupling prediction model,which includes the hierarchical structure of "individual basic attributes,travel attributes,function location strategy and decision-making psychology",is established.The model reference estimation is carried out according to the streetcar development decision behavior data which is based on the function orientation.By comparing the estimation results of the traditional discrete model,the prediction ability of the coupling prediction model was tested.Moreover,based on the model estimation results,the interaction mechanism between unobservable latent variables and observable explanatory variables in different heterogeneous groups is discussed.It is also discussed that the different characteristics of the decision choices of different right-of-way modes and line-network layout structures by different heterogeneous groups under the functional orientation.In addition,the model application value is explored by formulating planning guidance of streetcar under different functional orientation.The thesis expects to enrich the theoretical system of modern streetcars by studying the inner mechanism of modern streetcar development,as well as to deepen the knowledge and understanding of the driving causes and conditions of modern streetcar development.The study may also provide theoretical support for considering all development factors more scientifically and rationally in planning decisions and promoting the healthy development of modern streetcar.