Theoretical And Practical Research On The Accessment And Planning Of Urban Water Resilience

When uncertainty and crisis become the new norm in the world,rather than the exception,system resilience is increasingly recognized by the international community as a key feature.Against the backdrop of"water security and climate change remaining continuous and profound global crises in the coming decades,"water system resilience will become a focus of scientific inquiry,strategic planning,and policy implementation for cities,especially coastal ones.With resilience thinking as the guiding scientific paradigm,this paper seeks to establish a theoretical framework for urban water resilience planning with the socio-spatial-ecological system（SSES）by exploring descriptive rules and expression methods.Using Qingdao as its research area,the paper constructs an evaluation system for processing and initially forms theory and technical methods for researching urban water resilience planning.（1）The Enrichment and Development of Resilience Thinking Scientific Paradigm.The evolution of systems science has led to complexity research,with the advancement of complex adaptive systems theory and chaos theory contributing to the gradual emergence of resilience urban theory models.The development of complex urban theory proposes a social-spatial-ecological system framework for urban system science research;establishes the ability,state,scale,and interference of resilience research as the four thinking characteristics guiding water system research.（2）Theoretical Construction of Urban Water Resilience Assessment and Planning Framework.In this paper,the water system is defined as comprising blue water（including sea）and green water,and the characteristics of water cycle and complexity are clarified.Building on this basis,the paper proposes that the ontology of urban water resilience research is the relationship between the water system and the urban socio-ecological system.The research objects of water resilience encompass six aspects of the water system:water resource,water environment,water ecology,water facilities,water disasters,and water governance,which are represented comprehensively at three levels:society,space,and ecology.Then this paper proposes five principles of water resilience planning from a governance perspective to enhance the collaborative relationship between the water system and the socio-spatial-ecological system.These principles aim to enable adaptation or transformation that supports human well-being under pressure and impact and act on ecology,space,society system,and resilience target benefits.According to the principles,the comprehensive improvement of urban water resilience is achieved through a 4-step evaluation method of internal and external risk identification,status assessment,resilience assessment,and planning response in the water system.To carry out this process,a state analysis of the urban water system is conducted and the analytic hierarchy process method is used to evaluate the results.Ultimately,achieving planning governance of urban water resilience requires a coordinated effort and collaboration among stakeholders from various sectors and levels of governance.（3）Practice of Comprehensive Assessment of Water Resilience in Qingdao.As a typical coastal city,Qingdao faces various water-related issues.This paper constructs a coastal city adaptability indicator system that involves multiple stakeholders from the perspectives of governance,the public,experts,and international experience.The system includes 35 indicators categorized as basic and characteristic indicators.The 27 basic indicators are applicable to most cities,while the characteristic indicators are tailored for coastal cities.A typical evaluation model for water resilience in coastal cities is established by conducting consistency tests.The water resilience check-up shows that Qingdao’s baseline water pressure is at 104%,far exceeding the highest value.Groundwater quality and eutrophication are the main risks that Qingdao faces regarding its water environment.Eutrophication caused by green tides arises from external disturbances to the system and concentrates at the estuary of the Bottom River in Jiaozhou Bay.The spatial and shape indicators of rivers in terms of water ecology services are low and pose high risks.In terms of water infrastructure,the ratio of"blue-green"areas within the urban area is less than one-third.With an increased probability of concentrated short-term rainfall,there is a higher risk of flood disasters in built-up areas.The rate of groundwater level decline is nearly 30 times that of the sea-level rise.Serious disasters caused by seawater intrusion and underground funnel zones pose threats,as do those caused by storm surges to coastal communities.More than 60%of the chemical risk sources are concentrated in Jiaozhou Bay.Water governance capacity has been improving year by year,with increased investment in particular.（4）The water resilience assessment of Qingdao has generated a comprehensive evaluation result.According to the analytic hierarchy process,the total R score for urban water resilience in Qingdao is 3.53,indicating a generally high risk and low resilience level.Both criterion layers R₁ and R₅ are at high risk and low toughness levels.Criterion layers R₂,R₃,and R₄ are at medium risk and medium resilience,while only R₆ is at low risk and high resilience.This assessment highlights that water disasters and water volume are the two most vulnerable parts of Qingdao’s water system.However,the water system synergy level A is at a good level with a score of 0.825.To enhance water resilience planning and governance in Qingdao,both spatial strategies and governance strategies must be implemented.These two approaches will work together to ensure that the city’s water system is resilient to shocks and disruptions.From a spatial perspective,four core spatial resilience improvement strategies should be established:pattern,scale,function,and elements.On the other hand,governance strategies can support spatial strategies by establishing a local institutional framework to coordinate water resilience efforts.The governance strategies suggest matching urban development dynamics and improving top-level designs from structure,practice to process design.Other key strategies include cultivating the social governance system,realizing intelligent monitoring,simulation,and feedback through the basic data sharing platform,and promoting continuous learning and transformation ability of water resilience governance.In summary,this research is multidisciplinary and focuses on the intersection of multiple disciplines to clarify and develop the connotation of urban water resilience.Through this research,a theoretical and methodological framework for urban water resilience planning has been constructed.The framework includes physical examination,evaluation,and planning practice of water resilience in the coastal city of Qingdao.This research also explores the planning principles,evaluation systems,and governance paths for improving water resilience in cities under the combined effects of multi-dimensional,multidisciplinary,and multi-method approaches.