Rural Resilience Planning Theory Based On Systemic Risk Management In Urban Fringe

Accurate identification and effective governance of rural risks is the key link to achieve the strategic objectives of rural revitalization.Under the impact of rapid urbanization,rural areas in China’s urban fringe areas face systemic risks such as "weakening of the level of industrial self-organization,declining ability of social autonomy,instability of people’s livelihood and employment,destruction of ecological pattern,and imbalance of allocation among factors".For rural strategy of rejuvenating the demand of the precision request of system risk management,aimed at "rural complex systematic risk mechanism of accurate recognition and depth interpretation","the evolution of rural system risk management strategy and resilience theory depth coupling","rural system’s resilience optimization strategy planning and implementation of precise landing" three major scientific problems,paper constructed the city fringe area country resilience reengineering objectives and resilience optimization theory,construct the mechanism of "pattern of risk identification,risk analysis-resilience evaluation-resilience landscape reconstruction-resilience planning response".Research using multi-source data,system correlation,spatial econometric analysis,multivariate techniques such as artificial intelligence,accurately identify the fringe area of country system risk pattern and the clustering characteristics,depth interpretation of systemic risk pattern "foreign intervention-endogenous trigger-policy" to insurance mechanism,puts forward the resolving system risk "industries-social governance-the people’s livelihood security-ecological support" resilience optimization strategy and "macro plan as a whole-medium fine control-microscopic conduction" the resilience of planning and response plan.The research results resolve the systemic risks in rural fringe areas from the source,ensure the organic combination and implementation of the resilient risk management strategy and spatial planning,and provide theoretical support and examples for the long-term governance of rural systemic risks in urban fringe areas in China.The first to the third chapter elaborates the background of theoretical construction,research foundation and theoretical innovation achievements.Under the impact of urbanization,rural areas in China’s urban fringe are characterized by "high complexity,strong dynamism and destructiveness",and there are systemic risks such as "weakening of industrial self-organization level,decline of social autonomy ability,insufficient livelihood facilities and unstable employment,tense ecological security pattern,unbalanced allocation of system elements".Paper organic blend of the rural system risk and resilience study,construct the city fringe area country resilience planning theory,including the system structure of risk,resilience composition,risk resilience governance theory and the mechanism of "pattern of risk identification,risk resolution-resilience evaluation-resilience landscape reconstruction-resilience planning response" practice,formed from risk identification system to management the whole process of implementation of resilience research framework.Chapter four is "risk pattern identification".Taking the rural areas in the urban fringe of Tianjin as the empirical object,this paper uses multi-source data acquisition and analysis techniques to accurately identify the evolution and differentiation characteristics of the multi-risk pattern of "industry-society-people’s livelihood-ecology-factor coordination" in rural areas in the urban fringe.In this paper,the clustering law of rural risks is summarized as "ecologically sensitive,urbanized,semi-urban and semi-rural,rural agriculture-oriented,rural industrial-oriented,and compound development-oriented",and the results of fine village classification are formed,providing support for the precise governance of systemic risks and village-specific strategies for resilient reconstruction.The fifth chapter is “the analysis of risk mechanism”.In this paper,a risk mechanism model of "exogenous intervention-endogenous trigger-policy influence" is proposed.By using spatial econometric and system correlation analysis techniques,the core influencing factors of the system’s risk resistance ability,the correlation mechanism among risk factors,and the risk adaptation effect of different rural systems are analyzed.The analysis shows that the external factors change the ecological risk pattern mainly through changing land use structure and changing dynamic attitude.The endogenous sources of the system are production mode and production relationship factors,which directly affect the differentiation of system risk factors,and determine the functional and stability level of the risk resistance ability of the rural system.The evolution path of rural system is "traditional agricultural system-concurrent agricultural system-advanced concurrent agricultural system +non-rural system".The difference in the evolution stages of village system determines the clustering of systemic risks and the spatial differentiation of risk factors.The sixth chapter is "resilience development evaluation".Based on the core of the system pattern of risk impact factor types,the paper selected resilience evaluation index system,comprehensive matrix analytic hierarchy process(ahp)and entropy weight method to calculate index weight,and resilience evaluation model construction system,through analyzing empirical data from tianjin "high resilience equilibrium-single insufficient resilience-more resilience" spatial clustering characteristics,summarizes the resilience spatial autocorrelation law(rural public facilities lack of overall layout leads to system elements coordination less resilience "high-high" related area;The mechanism of low level and high autocorrelation of system resilience includes "development lag type" in the evolutionary stage + "urban margin type" under the impact of urban expansion).Chapter seven is "resilience pattern restructuring".Paper resilience evaluation conclusion,relying on the city fringe area village system from the system risk "components and formation mechanism of" point of view,to construct the "industry nurturing-social governance-the development of the people’s livelihood-ecological support" system resilience ascension path,has been clear about the "endogenous foster-foreign cooperative-system design" the optimum path of risk formation mechanism,form the system matrix resilience landscape reconstruction strategy.According to the risk differences of different types of village systems,the resilience of rural system in urban fringe areas can be accurately improved.Chapter eight is "resilience planning response".This paper constructs the multi-level planning method of "township classification guidance-village classification management and control-detailed design guidance" from the multi-scale of "macro planning,medium and fine control,micro conduction".Taking Tianjin as an example,the study demonstrated the application of resiliency planning techniques and methods for rural systems in urban fringe areas,and developed application-oriented results such as resiliency planning unit guidelines,implementation assessment and intelligent management platform.Under the framework of territorial spatial planning,the precise implementation,multi-scale linkage and technical translation of rural system risk management strategies in marginal areas have been realized.The innovation points of this paper include:(1)Using the theory of systemic evolutionary resilience,the theoretical framework of rural resilience planning in urban fringe areas based on systemic risk governance is constructed;(2)The complex mechanism of "exogenous intervention,endogenous trigger and policy impact" in the risk pattern of rural system in urban fringe is deeply interpreted;(3)The rural system risk resilience management strategy coupled with "industrial cultivation-social governance-people’s livelihood development-ecological support" and "endogenous cultivation-exogenous collaboration-institutional design" is proposed;(4)The resilience planning response method and practical application process of "macro planning-medium precision control-micro conduction" in rural areas of urban fringe are constructed.