| As a major component of China’s agriculture,the livestock and poultry industry undertakes the task of guaranteeing national food security and meeting the people’s growing demand for high-quality protein food.With the rapid development of the economy and the improvement of living standards,consumers’ demand for livestock and poultry products has undergone significant changes in quantity and structure.On the one hand,the quantity demand for livestock and poultry products has continued to grow,and in order to meet the growing consumer demand,the scale of production in the breeding industry has been expanding;on the other hand,the quality of livestock and poultry products and diversification of the requirements are increasing,and they are inclined to be green and healthy,high-quality and safe products.While the livestock and poultry industry is facing a shortage of soil and water resources,environmental pressure,epidemic risk increase and many other problems,restricting the sustainable development of the breeding industry,in order to adapt to industrial restructuring and changes in consumer demand,to achieve green transformation of the livestock industry,optimise the supply structure of livestock and poultry meat products is imperative.The Outline of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Vision 2035 clearly puts forward “optimising the structure of the animal husbandry industry”,stressing the need to “optimise the structure and regional layout of livestock and poultry breeding,and promote the green development of animal husbandry”.At the same time,due to the macroeconomic situation,market supply and demand changes and other factors,in recent years the price fluctuations of livestock and poultry products have intensified,impacting on the lives of consumers and the production and operation of breeding enterprises,and through a complex transmission mechanism affecting market demand and supply.Therefore,a reasonable understanding of the effects of price changes of livestock and poultry products and their impact on the optimisation of industrial structure is crucial for maintaining national food security,guaranteeing the “safety on the tip of the tongue” of the masses,formulating relevant policies,guiding reasonable consumption and optimising industrial restructuring.In view of the above analysis,this paper defines the connotation of the price linkage effect of livestock,poultry and meat products,market spatial correlation effect and industrial structure optimisation based on the existing theoretical foundations such as the price theory of the commodity system,the price transmission theory,the market spatial correlation theory,and the theory of industrial structure;secondly,on the basis of the mechanism analysis of the price linkage effect of livestock,poultry and meat products and the market spatial correlation effect of livestock,poultry and meat products,we will deeply explore the price linkage,spatial correlation effect and its impact on the optimisation of industrial structure.Secondly,based on the mechanism analysis of price linkage of livestock and poultry meat products and the mechanism analysis of spatial association of livestock and poultry meat products market,the role played by price linkage and spatial association in the process of price change affecting the optimisation of industrial structure is deeply explored.Furthermore,based on the data of National Agricultural Products Cost and Benefit Data and China Agricultural Products Price Survey Yearbook from 2001 to 2021,we analyse the production cost and benefit of livestock and poultry and price fluctuations of major meat products,as well as analyse the characteristics of the supply and demand markets of livestock and poultry and meat products and the influencing factors.Then,based on the monthly price data of China’s major livestock and poultry meat products market from January 2005 to December 2021,we use the directed acyclic graph,social network analysis and other methods to explore the linkage effect of livestock and poultry meat product prices from the double perspective of the same period and the inter-period;we use spatial correlation measurement,spatial correlation network analysis and other methods to analyse the market price of livestock and poultry meat product prices from the double perspective of static and dynamic.In addition,in order to improve the research on the influence of price changes on industrial structure optimisation,benchmark regression,chain intermediary effect and other models are used to verify the influence of price changes on industrial structure optimisation,to further test the linkage effect,the intermediary role of spatial correlation,and to analyse the specific paths of the optimisation of the structure of the livestock and poultry industry based on the results of the research.Finally,it puts forward policy suggestions to accelerate the optimisation of livestock and poultry industry structure.After the double argumentation of theory and empirical evidence,this paper draws the following main conclusions:(1)Using X12 seasonal adjustment and H-P filter method to analyse the cyclicality of price fluctuations of the four major meat products of livestock and poultry,the results show that: pork price shows obvious seasonal characteristics within a year,presenting a “two valleys and two peaks” law,price fluctuations are accompanied by obvious cyclicality,and the starting point of price fluctuations is set as the trough of the larger deviation to the peak of the larger deviation in the sample period,and the price fluctuation is set as the starting point of the larger deviation to the trough.During the sample period,the starting point of price fluctuation was set between the trough and the trough with larger deviation,forming a total of six complete price fluctuation cycles,with each cycle starting from the lowest point rising to the highest point and then declining in an inverted “U” pattern;the beef price showed obvious seasonal characteristics of “one peak and two valleys” during the year.Beef prices show a clear seasonal feature of “one peak and two valleys” in a year,with four relatively complete price fluctuation cycles during the sample period according to the large deviations between the troughs,forming an inverted “U” cycle;lamb prices show a seasonal feature of “one peak and one valley” in a year,divided into four major cycles during the sample period;chicken prices show a seasonal feature of “one peak and one valley”in a year,divided into four major cycles during the sample period;chicken prices show a seasonal feature of “one peak and one valley” during a year,divided into four major The price of lamb shows “one peak and one trough” seasonal characteristics in one year,and is divided into 4 major cycles in the sample period;the price of chicken shows “two peaks and two troughs” seasonal characteristics in one year,and is divided into 8 cycles according to the obvious deviation between the troughs in the sample period.(2)Theoretical analysis shows that price changes of livestock,poultry and meat products can produce linkage effects,promote the formation of spatial correlation in the market,and further promote the optimisation of the structure of the livestock and poultry industry through the optimisation of the production structure,the upgrading of the supply structure,and the influence of the industrial scale agglomeration.Livestock and poultry meat products price linkage can improve industrial concentration,drive the supply structure upgrade,expand the standardised scale production capacity,accelerate the industry chain extension and supporting capacity building,guide the consumption structure upgrade,stimulate the release of policy dividends and thus have a conduction effect on the optimisation of the structure of the livestock and poultry industry;Livestock and poultry meat products price linkage from the inter-regional transfer of livestock and poultry products supply and demand,price signals to guide the flow of factors,policy coordination to trigger The price linkage of livestock and poultry meat products from the inter-regional livestock and poultry products supply and demand transfer,price signals to guide the flow of factors,policy coordination to trigger a homogeneous response,industry organizations to promote the integration of operations,convergence of consumer preferences to form a unified market and other mechanisms to promote the spatial correlation of the livestock and poultry market between the different regions is constantly strengthened;In addition,the spatial correlation of the livestock and poultry meat market is through the promotion of the optimization of the production layout,to promote the perfection of the industrial chain,to optimize the adjustment of the product structure,accelerate the progress of industrial technology,to cultivate the construction of well-known brands,and to promote the scale of the industry to the animal The optimisation of industrial structure has a driving effect.(3)Using the directed acyclic graph,social network analysis and other methods,from the same period and inter-temporal dual perspective to empirically explore the linkage effect of livestock and poultry meat product prices,the results show that: from the analysis of the same period perspective,four kinds of meat products within the chicken has a strong price of the same period of the linkage effect,the existence of pork→chicken,beef→chicken,mutton→chicken the same period of the impact of the relationship between the pork,beef and lamb to the chicken price of a very significant contemporaneous impact effect;there is a very significant contemporaneous impact effect;the existence of a pork→chicken,beef→chicken,lamb→chicken prices.very significant contemporaneous impact effect;there exists a contemporaneous causal relationship of beef-lamb,but the direction of the impact is not clear;there exists a contemporaneous impact relationship of beef-pork,and the direction of the impact is likewise not clear.Analysed from the inter-period perspective,in the linkage network of the four major meat products of livestock and poultry,pork and mutton are located at the core of the network,and there is a wide range of price linkage with other products,chicken is at the end of the network,and its price is affected by other products more than the impact on other products;in addition,beef is in the middle position,and is affected by the changes in the price of pork and mutton,and it also affects the price of chicken,i.e.,pork and mutton are at the core position of price transmission,while chicken is at the end position of price reception.(4)Using spatial correlation measurement,spatial correlation network analysis and other methods to empirically demonstrate the spatial correlation effect of livestock and poultry meat product prices,the results show that: static perspective,in terms of total correlation of livestock and poultry meat product markets,livestock and poultry meat product markets show a high degree of correlation and integration across the country,and the total correlation levels of the pork market,the beef market,the lamb market,and the chicken market are respectively 95.70%,85.90%,81.10%,82.00%;from the comparison of the four major meat varieties,the spatial correlation level of the market is in the order of pork market > beef market > chicken market > mutton market,indicating that among the four major meat products the pork market presents a stronger linkage effect and a higher degree of integration;from the point of view of influence,the impacts of the various regional markets of livestock and poultry meat products on other regions There are large differences in the degree of influence,but the gap between the degree of influence of the livestock and poultry meat products market in each region by other regions is relatively small,and there are obvious differences between different species,the pork market is most affected by the pork market in other regions,followed by the beef and lamb markets,and the chicken market is least affected by the degree of external influence.Dynamic perspective: the spatial correlation among the four kinds of livestock,poultry and meat product markets generally shows a fluctuating upward development trend,the degree of spatial integration among the markets is deepening,and the coordination of market correlation among the regions is continuously enhanced;and the roles and positions of different provinces in the livestock,poultry and meat product markets are different,and the main producing and selling areas of livestock,poultry and meat products play a central role in the spatial correlation network and act as the centre of the network.The main producing areas and main marketing areas of livestock and poultry meat products play a central role in the spatial association network and act as the centre of the network.They not only act as the "bridge" connecting various regions,but also carry out the function of transmitting information and resources,while the remote areas in the west have relatively less influence in the association network and are in a subordinate and marginal position.(5)Adopting benchmark regression,chain intermediary effect and other models to verify the impact of price changes of livestock and poultry meat products on the optimization of industrial structure and the intermediary role of linkage effect and spatial correlation,the results show that: the price changes of livestock and poultry meat products can promote the optimization of livestock and poultry industrial structure;at the same time,the price changes of different meat varieties have a significant role in optimizing the structure of the livestock and poultry industry and the size of the role of the price changes of pork > chicken > beef > mutton.In the impact of price changes of livestock and poultry meat products on the optimisation of livestock and poultry industrial structure,price linkage and spatial association play a significant intermediary role,and the chain intermediary effect also passed the Bootstrap test,indicating that price changes of livestock and poultry meat products can not only promote the optimisation of livestock and poultry industrial structure through the independent intermediary channels of price linkage effect and market spatial association,but also through the price changes of livestock and poultry meat products.Changes→price linkage effect→market space association→livestock and poultry industry structure optimisation chain intermediary channel to play a role,that is,the price linkage effect,market space association at the same time play an independent intermediary effect and chain intermediary effect,and according to the empirical results concluded that the optimal path of livestock and poultry industry structure optimisation for the livestock and poultry meat product price changes→livestock and poultry meat product price linkage effect→optimisation of the structure of the livestock and poultry industry,but to the optimal path is price change of livestock and poultry meat products→price linkage effect of livestock and poultry meat products→spatial correlation of livestock and poultry meat products market→optimisation of livestock and poultry industrial structure,in order to give greater play to the role of the government and the market,and accelerate the optimisation of livestock and poultry industrial structure.Based on the theoretical analysis,empirical results and conclusions of the study,the following policy recommendations are put forward: reduce market access barriers and promote regional integration;improve the livestock and poultry price formation and information dissemination mechanism;formulate the price guideline zones for different types of livestock and poultry products to prevent excessive price fluctuations;encourage leading enterprises to play a role in stabilising the price of the industry chain;accelerate the structural adjustment of the livestock and poultry industry,and guide the appropriate increase in the supply of poultry and other products to optimise the structure of supply and demand;improve the information release system of livestock and poultry prices and expand the transparency of information;build a mechanism for benefit sharing and risk sharing,and coordinate the demands of different stakeholders;regulate the business conduct of the industrial chain,formulate the code of conduct for industrial alliance,and strengthen the quality and safety supervision to prevent the damage of industrial chain interests. |
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