An Empirical Study On The Effects Of Political Risk And Institutional Quality On Food Security

Problem/purpose:one of the most challenging problems in today’s world is food insecurity,an estimated approximately 768 million people worldwide suffer from a lack of adequate and healthy food regularly for their life.More than half(i.e.,425 million)of these undernourished people emerged in the Asian region.And among the Asian region,332 million people are affected in South Asia.Its implications can be catastrophic,leading to irreversible ill health and numerous harmful socioeconomic outcomes that threaten people’s wellbeing and development.Thus,this study purposes to empirically examine the diverse effects of political risk and institutional quality on food security globally and in the world’s most food-insecure regions by various econometric models,using the multidimensional factors of political risk and institutional quality.More particularly,this study first globally investigates the direct effects of political risk and institutional quality factors separately and collectively on food security.Second,to analyze the spatial impact of political risk and institutional quality on food security of the world’s most foodinsecure continent(i.e.,Asia).Third,to examine the short-run and long-run effects of political risk and institutional quality on food security of the world’s most food-insecure region(i.e.,the South-Asian region).This research is based on the fact that we need to know whether lower political risk and better institutional quality may contribute to eradicating hunger and all types of malnutrition worldwide,particularly in the world’s most food-insecure regions.Significance:this project is in accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),which the United Nations initiated to draw attention toward peace(including lower political risk),justice and better institutions in response to global hunger and all type of undernutrition.However,an inspection of the empirical literature shows that none of the studies has investigated the diverse effects of political risk and institutional quality on food security while considering all the political risk and institutional quality factors and multidimensional aspects of food security.Methodology/approach:this study employed panel data to investigate the diverse role of political risk and institutional quality in food security by various methodologies,using the seven political risk factors and five institutional quality factors.Political risk factors:internal and external conflicts,ethnic and religious tensions,military in politics,socioeconomic conditions risk,and investment profile risk.Institutional quality factors:government stability,control of corruption,law and order,democratic accountability,and bureaucratic effectiveness.Food security has been measured by availability,accessibility,stability,and food utilization average.For the first objective,we employed a robust System Generalized Method of Moment(System-GMM)estimator to investigate the separately and collectively effects of the political risk and institutional quality factors on food security globally(131 developed and developing countries included)from 2001 to 2018.The first objective relied on lower political risk factors and better institutional quality factors.However,"collectively" means the political risk index,the institutional quality index,and the composite index of the political risk and institutional quality factors.The System-GMM methodology has too employed in the comparative analysis of the differences in the direct impact of political risk and institutional quality factors separately and collectively on food security between developed and developing countries from 2001 to 2018.Forty-six developed and eighty-five developing countries are used in the comparative analysis.In both global and comparative analyses,we performed two-step analyses for convenient interpretation or to avoid awkwardness in explaining the coefficients;thus,we transformed(rescaled)those political risk and institutional quality factors that showed the awkwardness in the first stage of analysis.Second,we used spatial panel data models(SPDMs)to investigate the spatial effects of political risk and institutional quality on food security in 35 Asian countries from 2000 to 2018,while among SPDMs finalized the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)results by several tests.This objective considered all political risk and institutional quality factors as a political risk index(i.e.,in rescaled form).Third,we utilized the panel autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model to explore the short-run and long-run effects of political risk and institutional quality on food security in 4 South-Asian countries from 2000 to 2018.This objective used all political risk and institutional quality factors as a political stability index(i.e.,in the original scale).The South-Asian countries were Pakistan,India,Bangladesh,and Sari Lanka.Thus,the short-run dynamics effects of the political stability on food security for the four countries individually were also estimated.Moreover,the Granger causality test too used to investigate causalities between political stability and food security.Findings:first related to the global analysis,the lower political risk factors(internal and external conflicts,ethnic and religious tensions,military in politics,socioeconomic conditions risk,and investment profile risk)and the institutional quality factors(government stability,law and order,democratic accountability,and bureaucratic effectiveness)showed positive and statistically significant effects on food security.However,there had awkwardness response to food security from the control of corruption before rescaling and a significantly negative reaction to food security after rescaling(i.e.,in the second stage of analysis).Results for developed countries showed awkwardness response only from ethnic tensions and the military in politics before rescaling,which later just ethnic tensions showed a significant adverse reaction to food security after rescaling while the remaining factors behaved same as for global analysis.Results for developing countries,religious tensions,military in politics,socioeconomic conditions risk,investment profile risk,and the control of corruption showed awkwardness,which showed the negative and significant response to food security after rescaling,while the remaining factors behaved the same as for the global analysis.Moreover,the collective effects(i.e.,the political risk index,institutional quality index,and composite index)positively and significantly respond to food security for the whole,developed,and developing countries sample.The impacts of political risk and institutional quality factors,whether separately or collectively,on food security are less influential in developing countries than in developed countries.Second,the spatial analysis results showed negative and significant effects of political risks(i.e.,index of increased political risk factors and poor institutional quality factors)on food security of the given affected country and its neighboring countries.Finally,the results related to the short-run and long-run effects of the political stability index(i.e.,index of lower political risk and better institutional quality)on food security showed that political stability positively and significantly affected the food security of the South-Asian region in both short-run and long-run estimates.It has been confirmed that lower political risk and better institutional quality in the world’s most foodinsecure regions can increase food security levels in both the short-run and long-run periods.In addition,the results of short-run effects of political stability on food security for individual countries showed that political stability positively and significantly affected the food security of India,Pakistan,Bangladesh,and Sari Lanka.The less influential effects of political stability on food security have emerged in Pakistan and then in Sari Lanka.Moreover,we found the bidirectional relationship between political stability and food security.Research implications/limitations:this research relies on literature about food security issues and tries to investigate globally and in the world’s most food insecure regions the diverse role of political risk and institutional quality in food security via various methods,using multidimensional aspects of political risk and institutional quality.The study’s scale and depth are limited to the authors’ information so the research may be not adequate to address all food security issues.Practical implications:the current research debate on the relationship between political risk,institutional quality,and food security significantly calls for urgent efforts to overcome political risk and improve institutional quality in combating hunger globally,particularly in the world’s most food insecure regions and developing countries.Countries worldwide with higher political risk and poor institutional quality can significantly face poor food security levels in terms of availability,accessibility,stability and food utilization,from which individuals can suffer from a lack of adequate and healthy food on a daily basis for their healthy life.The developing country’s ability to improve food security faces more obstacles due to higher political risk factors and poor institutional quality factors than developed countries,which can contribute to increasing global hunger.Furthermore,one of the leading causes of acute food insecurity in the world’s most food insecure regions,that found by this study,is that higher political turmoil with poor institutional quality can significantly decrease food security in the affected country and its neighboring countries.It indicates alarming threats to physical,social,and economic access to adequate and safe food of individuals on a daily basis at the regional level.More particularly,the implications of higher political risk and poor institutional quality basically may lead lack of capital in terms of social,physical,financial,human,and natural,as well as income poverty in terms of employment,assets,pensions,transfers,and dwelling.While lack of capital and income poverty can cause underlying threats to the household environment,health services,adequate care,and household food security.Thus,there is more probability of insufficient dietary intake and diseases,which may cause acute malnutrition.Acute malnutrition has short-term implications,such as disability,mortality,and morbidity,and long-term implications,such as adult size,intellectual ability,economic productivity,reproductive performance,and metabolic and cardiovascular diseases.Originality/value:the thesis results "on the diverse role of political risk and institutional quality in food security by various methodologies,using the seven political risk factors and five institutional quality factors" offer a perspective for formulating policies that can be of interest to academia,policymakers,international donor agencies,and practitioners in order to combat global hunger for sustainable development by 2030.