Research On The Collaborative Governance Behaviour Of Multiple Subjects In Urban Public Crises Based On CAS Theory

As China’s socio-economic development and urbanisation continue to accelerate,there is a massive influx of people and material wealth into cities.Today,cities have gradually become an important vehicle for promoting sustainable economic growth and ensuring people’s well-being,playing a central role in economic development and social progress.At the same time,cities are also sensitive areas where risks are most likely to be high and where crises are most likely to converge,with various potential risks accompanying urban development.As cities expand in size and function,risks accumulate and eventually evolve into public crises,which hinder the healthy development of cities,stimulate the sensitivities of citizens and test the decisionmaking wisdom of those involved in governance.Urban public crises are different from general emergencies in that they are mostly complex and complex public emergencies,characterised by dynamism,non-linearity,randomness and uncertainty,as well as the complexity of frequent occurrences,increased intensity and uncontrollable consequences.Once erupted,it will not only induce a variety of secondary disasters,but also seriously damage the lives and property of residents in the area,bringing many risks and challenges to the economic and social development of the city.In the face of highly complex urban public crises,it is difficult to meet the demand for efficient emergency response by relying solely on the government’s "top-down" pyramidal emergency management structure and hierarchical governance decision-making mechanisms.In this way,multi-corporate governance has become the most effective means of dealing with urban public crises.In order to improve the level of collaborati ve multi-corporate governance,it is necessary to explore the evolution of a collaborative multi-corporate governance system for urban public crises and to clarify the relationship and behavioural characteristics of the participating subjects in the governance process.To address the limitations of the traditional emergency management paradigm in the study of urban public crisis management,this paper will start from the behavioural characteristics of multi-organism collaborative management of urban public crises and follow the"bottom-up" research paradigm of complex adaptive systems(CAS)theory to accurately portray the behavioural characteristics of the participating governance actors in terms of "adaptive creation and complexity".The paper will also reveal the strengths of the multi-actor model of collaborative urban public crisis management and provide a useful reference for the development of urban public crisis management in China.Firstly,the thesis defines what is meant by collaborative multi-subject governance behaviour in urban public crises.Drawing on existing research findings,this paper defines the concepts related to urban public crisis events and the collaborative governance of multiple actors.The research framework of this paper is further built on the basis of a theoretical compendium of complex adaptive systems(CAS),together with the sub-theories of covariance,holism and grouping,adaptive landscapes,evolutionary game theory,and complex networks.The four main sections include:the influencing factors and action paths of collaborative governance behaviour of multiple subjects in urban public crisis,adaptive learning behaviour of subjects in urban public crisis governance,interactive cooperation behaviour among subjects in urban public crisis governance,and the emergence of collaborative behaviour of multiple subjects in urban public crisis governance.Secondly,the thesis analyses the influencing factors and action paths of collaborative multi-subject governance behaviour in urban public crises.Based on a meta-analysis of 35 empirical research papers on the collaborative governance behaviour of multiple actors in public crises over a 20-year period from 2001-2020,the key influencing factors are examined with the help of fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to explore in depth the 31 urban public crisis events over the period 2019-2021.Through a qualitative and comparative analysis of multiple cases such as the New Crown Pneumonia(COVID-19)epidemic,the "6.13" tanker truck explosion in Wenling,Zhejiang Province,the "5.24" Honggu Tan murder case in Nanchang and the flooding disaster in the south,we have come up with four paths of action for the multi-disciplinary management of urban public crises in China.The four paths of action for collaborative management of urban public crises in China.The four paths of action are "multifactor-driven","technology-driven","information-interaction-driven" and"policy-regulation-driven" in the context of complexity,which lay the foundation for the following study on modelling and simulation of the behaviour of multiple actors in collaborative urban public crisis management.Thirdly,the thesis analyses the adaptive learning behaviour of urban public crisis management subjects.By introducing the collaborative willingness of participating governance subjects and extending the classical NK model,an agent-based model of the decision-making process of collaborative urban public crisis management tasks was constructed,and the effects of the level of subject trust,the degree of partnership between subjects and the standard deviation of the level of subject trust on the adaptive learning behaviour of subjects and the performance of collaborative urban public crisis management were clarified.The model is based on an agent-based model.The results show that:as adaptive subjects,the participating governance subjects themselves are dynamic and evolve,through self-learning and self-organisation to continuously optimise their own decisions to ensure maximum benefits;as the level of trust increases,the subjects can continuously increase their ability to adapt to changes in internal and external factors,thus seeking their own survival and development,and ultimately improving overall governance performance.Fourthly,the thesis analyses the interactive and cooperative behaviour between the subjects of urban public crisis management.This paper combines evolutionary game theory with system dynamics and introduces a Gaussian white noise random disturbance term to simulate the complexity characteristics of urban public crisis events,and constructs a deterministic evolutionary game and stochastic evolutionary game model for heterogeneous groups under urban public crisis events to compare and analyse the evolutionary process of group strategic choice behaviour with and without regulation.The results show that,on the one hand,central government regulation plays an important role in promoting the interactive and cooperative behaviour of urban public crisis management subjects,and proposes the use of dynamic reward and punishment mechanisms to ensure the long-term evolutionary stability of interactive and cooperative behaviour,thus enriching the research on central government regulation measures for urban public crisis management.On the other hand,it breaks through the limitations of previous studies which only focus on the deterministic evolutionary game of subjects’ decision-making choices,and explores the stochastic evolutionary game process of subjects’ interactive and cooperative decision-making choices,taking the complex adaptive characteristics of multi-object collaborative governance systems in urban public crises as an idea to lay the foundation for subsequent macro-level research.Fifthly,the thesis analyses the emergence of synergistic behaviour of multiple actors in urban public crisis management.This paper explores the macro-proliferation phenomenon under the emergence of micro-synergistic behaviours of multiple actors involved in the governance of urban public crisis events.Using a complex network evolutionary game approach,the BA scale-free network is regarded as the diffusion carrier of the emergent network,and a collaborative behavioural emergent network model of multiple subjects in urban public crisis management is established,combined with simulation to study the influence of the adaptive learning behaviour of micro subjects on the diffusion depth and breadth of macro group emergence.The results show that the cost of collaborative governance has the most significant effect on the diffusion effect of the emergent network of subjects’ collaborative behaviour,the size of the network determines the speed of evolution,the smaller the network size the greater the sensitivity to the spillover benefits of collaborative governance,and the larger the network size the greater the sensitivity to default penalties.Finally,the thesis proposes recommendations and countermeasures for the collaborative management of urban public crises by multiple actors.The above research has led to the construction of a policy system for the joint governance of multiple actors in urban public crisis SIG based on complex adaptive systems(CAS).This system breaks down the process of urban public crisis management from the bottom up in three levels:the micro level(Self-learning),the meso level(Interactive cooperation)and the macro level(Gather up),and sets out suggestions and countermeasures for collaborative urban public crisis management in each level.