The Impact Of The Syrian War On The Economic Development And Well-Being Of The Belt And Road Countries

War is the worst and most dangerous,tragic,and extensive event that may happen to humanity because of its severe and long-term effects.It represents the ultimate expression of conflict,as it causes a lot of significant economic and human losses that affect people’s daily lives and limit their economic and social well-being.So,it is considered a substantial tragedy in all respects of the word.The Civil War that Syria has experienced since 2011 has been regarded as one of the worst chapters of the armed conflict ever in the past thirteen years,as it resulted in the most significant number of population displacements,an unprecedented refugee crisis,and significant humanitarian expenditures.This has its effects not only on Syria as a developing country but also on other countries,especially on the adjacent countries due to the large number of Syrian refugees that have spread all over the world and due to the trade and political relationships that join Syria with countries all over the world due to its strategic geographical location in the Middle East.This research focuses on studying the impact of the Syrian war on the countries along the path of the Belt and Road Initiative,given the economic importance of this initiative from a regional and global perspective,as it links China with the Arabian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea,Central and Eastern Europe,Russia,Southeast Asia,South Asia,and the Indian Ocean,in addition to Southeast Asia,South Asia,and the Indian Ocean.In addition,this research focuses on studying the impact of the Syrian war on Syria’s neighboring countries and the Arab countries that are located on the Belt and Road Initiative path and that may be affected more by the Syrian war,either because of their geographical proximity to Syria or because they hosted the Syrian refugees.Thus,first,the research investigates the effect of the Syrian war on the GDP growth of the BRI countries.Then,it moves to examine the channels through which the Syrian war may affect the economic growth of the BRI countries,such as Investment,FDI,and Trade.Later,the research studies the effect of the Syrian war on the well-being of the BRI countries by examining the impact of the Syrian war on two channels through which the Syrian war may affect the welfare of the BRI countries,which are Inflation and GDP per capita growth.The research follows a quasi-experimental method,the Difference-in-Differences strategy(DiD),to investigate the effect of the Syrian war on the economic variables of the BRI countries using a strongly balanced world bank countries panel data in two periods,that are before the start of the Syrian war between(2005-2010),and during the wartime(20112019).After controlling for the year-fixed effect to capture any time-invariant,the estimated results show the following results:First,the Syrian war has significantly negatively affected the GDP growth of the BRI countries,especially the GDP growth of those countries that share the borders with Syria,as it has caused a high statistically significant reduction of about 1%and 5%in the GDP growth of those neighboring countries.Second,the research has also found that the Syrian war has had a sort of mixed effect on the channels of economic growth of the BRI countries.Thus,while the BRI countries’"FDI" in all BRI countries has witnessed a significant reduction due to the Syrian war,the"Investment" in the BRI countries,on the contrary,has witnessed a slight increase in all the BRI countries.Whereas "Trade" with the BRI countries has shown mixed results,as it has decreased significantly with Syria’s bordering and Arabic countries and increased with the other BRI countries.The research shows that Syria’s bordering countries have a highly significant reduction in "FDI" and "Trade,".This finding is consistent with the results of other studies that studied the regional effects of the Syrian war.Third,concerning the effects of the Syrian War on the well-being of the BRI countries,the research has found that the Syrian war has contributed significantly to increasing the inflation rate in all BRI countries,especially in the bordering countries and Arabic countries.At the same time,the Syrian War has caused a significant decrease in the GDP per capita in the neighboring countries and Syria’s nearby countries,which are located about 1000km far away from Syria,while it has caused a modest reduction in the GDP per capita rate in the other BRI countries.These results emphasize that the Syrian War has significantly decreased the living standards in the bordering and nearby countries.At the same time,it has caused a slight decrease in the living standards of other Arabic countries and other BRI countries.In summary,this study has found that the Syrian War has a negative and statistically significant spillover impact on the economic growth and well-being of BRI countries,particularly the regional ones.These findings align with the former research that dealt with the same topic in one way or another.Thus,the Syrian War can be interpreted as an exogenous shock,reinforcing the causal link between conflicts and lower growth.In addition,the research has presented a vision and outlines the priorities for the reconstruction phase in the aftermath of war for the countries suffering from war and its effects.It shows that the reconstruction of the aftermath of the war is a long-term and arduous process,given the magnitude of the losses.Thus,preparations for the reconstruction phase must begin early,even as the crisis continues.The success of the reconstruction process requires creative,innovative,and rational solutions.It needs practical,realistic,flexible,and rapid economic alternatives.In addition,Strategies,development plans,and time programs commensurate with the development objectives achieved from the reconstruction process must be developed in the medium and long term.These plans and programs should include a ladder of reconstruction priorities,which is the most necessary first,then the necessary,and the less critical.Thus,to achieve sustainable development in the reconstruction phase,the research has shown that,first,it should start by reconstructing the Human Capital or the human being by rebuilding the educational system,taking care of the health institutions and housing,and working to secure the requirements of a decent life for them;second,working to reconstruct the infrastructure and energy,which contributes to the activation of the economic and social movement;third,investing in the priority productive sectors that are capable of creating high value-added and achieving self-sufficiency.Finally,the research has presented some valuable recommendations and suggestions to help mitigate and reduce the adverse effects of the Syrian War on the neighboring countries and those countries located on the BRI route that are affected by the Syrian War and that are suffering from the adverse effects of this War,including the Arabic countries and Syria itself.In the researcher’s opinion,these suggestions can not only help the countries impacted by the Syrian War to minimize its harmful effects but also can help them in boosting their GDP growth and achieve economic and social development.