Research On The Impact Of City Size On Floating Population's Willingness To Sta

Since the reform and opening up,the reform of the household registration system in China has been gradually promoted,and the barriers of labor mobility between urban and rural areas and between different cities have been reduced.From the fifth to seventh national census,China’s floating population increased from 121 million to 375 million,accounting for 26.56% of the country’s total population from 9.30%,and nearly 40%of the country’s urban population.In the past,an important driving force of China’s rapid economic growth was the demographic dividend,but the acceleration of aging and below-replacement fertility makes the demographic dividend gradually weakened.At the same time,with the continuous upgrading of China’s industrial structure,the spatial distribution changes brought by large-scale population migration can effectively improve the utilization efficiency of labor resources,and further prolong the demographic dividend of manufacturing and service industry in the new era.In the stage of new urbanization,urban development focuses on the implementation of "human urbanization",and labor force becomes the most important factor of urban development.In recent years,China’s major cities have launched a fierce "scramble for talents",indicating that under the people-centered economic and social development strategy,floating population has a strong role in promoting urban development.The integration of floating population can not only enhance residents’ consumption ability,expand the market size and strengthen the optimistic expectation of the future development of the city,but also implement the "human urbanization" and provide a strong support for the construction of the new pattern of "double cycle" economic development.Therefore,the opportunity of floating population to promote economic and social development cannot be ignored.As the direct feedback of floating population to adapt to the local social environment after entering cities,exploring the influencing factors of floating population’s residence intention will be very significant for alleviating social conflicts and achieving balanced regional development in China.Floating population’s residence intention has many influencing factors,Through literature review,it is found that relevant researches mostly study the influencing factors of floating population’s residence intention from the micro individual level,housing price,social security and other dimensions.But in fact,the residence intention of floating population is not only affected by micro-individual factors such as economic expectation,welfare acquisition and human capital,but also related to the scale characteristics of the inflow city.With the development of economy,the scale of cities in China has been expanding,and the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,BeijingTianjin-Hebei and other large metropolitan areas and several regional urban agglomerations have been initially formed.At present,the annual net population inflow of urban agglomerations in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta exceeds600,000.It is not difficult to find that with the formation of large metropolitan areas and several regional urban agglomerations,floating population has become a trend of concentrated flow to a few metropolitan areas.There is some empirical evidence that migrants seem to prefer larger cities,but there is little insight into why.Based on this,this paper believes that it is necessary to discuss the relationship between city size and residence intention of floating population in detail.By analyzing the reasons and internal mechanisms of the effect of city scale on the floating population’s residence intention,and fully considering the practical demand of floating population,it is beneficial for the city government to properly arrange local floating population according to the actual situation.Floating population,give full play to their role on economic growth.Finally,in order to empirically test the impact of city size on the floating population’s residence intention,this paper uses the 2014-2017 national floating population dynamic monitoring survey data to match the data of 290 cities,and uses the OLS model and Probit model to evaluate the impact of city size on floating population.The effect of residence intention was estimated and analyzed,and robustness was tested by changing the model,deleting samples,and adding control variables.In order to solve the possible endogeneity problem of the model,the instrumental variable method is used to verify the reliability of the model.In order to analyze the differential effect of city size on the floating population’s residence intention,the sample cities were classified according to scale level,administrative level and geographic region,and then group regression was performed.In order to analyze the mechanism of the influence of city size on the floating population’s residence intention,the mediation effect model and the moderating effect model were used to explore the influence path of the city size on the floating population’s residence intention from the perspectives of economic factors and social factors.In order to carry out a subdivisional analysis of the impact of city size on the floating population’s willingness to stay,further in-depth analysis of the non-linear and structural effects of city size and the willingness of migrant workers to live is carried out.Through the above analysis,this paper mainly draws the following conclusions.Firstly,city size has a significant positive impact on the floating population’s longterm residence intention and household relocation intention.The empirical results of OLS regression model and Probit regression model in this paper show that,after controlling the variables of personal characteristics,urban characteristics and flow characteristics,the influence coefficient of increasing city scale on floating population’s residence intention is 0.0150,and the influence coefficient on floating population’s household residence intention is 0.0623.Both of them were positive at the significance level of 1%.It indicates that the larger the city size,the stronger the local floating population’s long-term residence intention and household relocation intention.After a series of robustness tests,such as changing the estimation model,deleting the sample range,adding control variables and instrumental variables,the estimation results remain highly consistent,which fully verifies the reliability and robustness of the benchmark regression.Secondly,in the heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the impact of city size on floating population’s residence intention has different effects in different cities.Cities with a population of 3 million or more can better exert the agglomeration effect on the floating population’s residence intention.Under the influence of the household registration threshold,the promotion effect of cities at the sub-provincial level and above(including municipalities directly under the Central Government)on floating population’s residence intention still has room for improvement.Due to the differences in economic development and resource endowment among cities in different regions,the city size in eastern China has a significant effect on the floating population’s residence intention,but not in central and western China.Thirdly,the expansion of city size will have an indirect impact on floating population’s residence intention through economic factors.This paper selects two wage premium and urban housing price to investigate the mechanism of economic factors in the impact of city size on floating population’s residence intention.The empirical results show that wage premium plays a partial intermediary effect in the process of urban size influencing the floating population’s residence intention.Whether it is nominal wage or wages adjusted according to the urban living cost,urban size can improve the long-term residence of floating population through the local wage premium.Urban housing price plays a part intermediary role in the process of urban size influencing floating population’s residence intention.In terms of the absolute value of urban housing price,the ratio of urban housing price to income and the increment value of urban housing price,the increase of housing price caused by the increase of urban size has a restraining effect on the residence intention of local floating population.Fourthly,the expansion of city size will have an indirect impact on floating population’s residence intention through social factors.This paper selects urban comfort and social integration to investigate the mechanism of social factors in the impact of city size on floating population’s residence intention.The empirical results show that urban comfort level plays a partial intermediary role in the process of city size influencing floating population’s residence intention and household registration intention,and the improvement of urban comfort level caused by the increase of city size will further strengthen floating population’s long-term residence intention in the local area.The degree of social integration plays a moderating role in the process of urban size influencing floating population’s residence intention and household registration intention,and the degree of social integration weakens the promotion effect of local urban size on floating population’s residence intention.Fifthly,the surrent city size of China has not yet reached the threshold of having a significant negative impact on the residence intention of floating population.Theoretically speaking,the impact of city size on floating population’s residence intention should be non-linear.When the agglomeration effect brought by the expansion of city size is offset by the crowding effect,the continuous expansion of city size may bring negative effects.However,the empirical results show that the current residence intention and household registration intention of floating population in China are still increasing with the increase of city size,and the negative impact of the increase of the city scale on the floating population’s residence intention has not yet appeared.Sixthly,due to the existence of selection effect and learning effect,the impact of city size on floating population’s residence intention is structural,and floating population with different skill levels are different in their attractiveness to the agglomeration effect of expanding city size.In general,the residence intention of floating population with different skill levels is promoted by city size.Compared with low-skill migrants,urban expansion has a stronger effect on the residence intention of high-skill migrants.Seventhly,city size also significantly promotes the willingness of migrant workers to stay in China,but the specific influence channels are different from those of ordinary floating population.Further mechanism tests show that urban size can affect migrant workers’ willingness to reside in local areas through wage premium,stable employment,children’s accompanying and agglomeration effect.The expansion of urban scale can further enhance the willingness of migrant workers to reside by improving their income level,ensuring their stable employment environment and strengthening their agglomeration effect in local cities.As the probability of children’s accompanying migration decreases with the expansion of city size,children’s accompanying migration has an inhibitory effect on the process of city size affecting migrant workers’ residence intention.