| In the future,promoting full employment and reasonably protecting the treatment and rights of workers will become an important part of China’s formulation of national economic policies.At present,with the upgrading of industrial structure,high-quality economic development and continuous improvement of education level,China’s labor market as a whole shows a dynamic trend of increasing employment scale.But at the same time,China’s future labor market is also facing many challenges.On the one hand,the aging of the population structure is gradually changing the structure of the labor market and has become one of the potential social risks in China in the future.The rapid population aging and low fertility rate will bring many challenges to the stability of the labor supply and demand structure,and will deeply affect the optimization of China’s industrial structure and high-quality economic development;On the other hand,how to meet the new demands of enterprises for labor skills under the background of my country’s industrial structure upgrading is a thorny problem facing my country’s labor employment market.The rapid development of emerging industries such as the Internet,big data,and cloud computing has caused related industries to face a large shortage of labor supply,and the transformation of the industrial structure has also caused the labor market of some traditional industries to face the dilemma of “difficulty in finding employment ”.Therefore,how to ensure the stability of China’s labor market will determine whether we can achieve common prosperity in the future.With the deepening of the globalization pattern,emerging strategic industries represented by information technology,high-end manufacturing,and digital economy are gradually changing the original form of international division of labor,and promoting the rise of the global value chain has become an important direction for China to achieve high-quality development.At present,scholars mostly study the measurement of the value chain and its influencing factors from different perspectives.Most of the results show that industrial structure upgrading,technological innovation,institutional factors,etc.are important factors related to the value chain.There are also a few scholars who have studied the impact of early Chinese labor employment on the value chain.As the status of China’s value chain continues to rise,the cost advantage of the original labor factor is gradually disappearing,and the extension of the industrial chain brought by the emerging industry sector is further affecting the behavior of labor market participation.Therefore,whether the rise of the value chain will affect the employment of China’s manufacturing labor force deserves in-depth study.In addition,in recent years,affected by "black swan" events such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the trend of anti-globalization has continued to emerge,the tendency of protectionism has gradually intensified,and the international trade situation has become increasingly complex.What impact will this have on the employment of my country’s labor force?Based on this,this article attempts to analyze the impact of the rise of the value chain on the employment scale of manufacturing labor from the perspective of scale effect and substitution effect through theoretical research and empirical analysis and combined with technological innovation,foreign investment and wage gap,it further analyzes the impact of value chain climbing on the employment of labor with different skills.In addition,combined with the background of trade policy uncertainty,this paper analyzes the relationship between the climb of the value chain,trade policy uncertainty and employment of China’s manufacturing labor force.This kind of thinking will provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for how to realize the development and improvement of the labor market in China in the process of climbing the value chain.The main contents include the following aspects:Firstly,on the one hand,by calculating the value chain position and forward and backward participation of China’s manufacturing industry segments,it briefly analyzes the country comparison of China’s manufacturing industry in the global value chain position and participation.In addition,a dynamic analysis on the value chain position and participation of China’s manufacturing industry segments from2000 to 2014;On the other hand,it makes a dynamic comparison and analysis of the employment scale of labor force in different industries of China’s manufacturing industry and the employment proportion of labor force with different skills.The results show that,first of all,China’s manufacturing global value chain position is lower than that of most developed countries in Europe and the United States,and the overall participation rate is relatively high.This shows that China has a long industrial chain embedded in the value chain,and there are many links in the industrial division of labor,but most of them involve the low-end fields of the value chain,and there is great potential for improving the position of the value chain in the future;Secondly,from 2000 to 2014,the employment scale of my country’s manufacturing labor force showed a dynamic trend of first rising and then gradually stabilizing,among which the proportion of labor employment in high-tech industries increased significantly.From the perspective of the proportion of labor force employment,China’s employment groups engaged in medium and low-skilled labor are the main part of the labor market,and the proportion of high-skilled labor is lower than that of medium and low-skilled labor,which shows that China’s high-skilled labor has room for further improvementSecond,based on theoretical and empirical investigations,it is found that the rise of the value chain has a promoting effect on the employment scale of China’s manufacturing labor force,and the specific impact is mainly determined by the scale effect and the substitution effect.Among them,the enterprise scale effect and market scale effect caused by the rise of the value chain are important factors to promote the increase of the employment scale of the manufacturing labor force,and the technology substitution and capital substitution effects caused by the rise of the value chain are the reasons for inhibiting the increase of the employment scale of the manufacturing labor force.Since the scale effect of the value chain climb is stronger than the substitution effect,the overall value chain climb has a promoting effect on the scale of labor employment.The effect of value chain climbing on the employment scale of China’s manufacturing labor force is still valid under the endogenous test and robustness test.From the perspective of industry differentiation,the rise of China’s value chain can promote the increase of labor employment in high,medium and low-skilled industries.Due to the differences in the technical level of the industry,the promotion effect of the value chain climbing on the employment scale of the labor force in the medium and high-tech industries is higher than the impact on the low-tech industries.In addition,the author further examines the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the empirical results,and finds that after adding the interaction term between the value chain location and the financial crisis,the result of the interaction term is significantly negative.The 2008 financial crisis significantly weakened the role of the global value chain in promoting the scale of labor employment.Third,based on the employment of different skilled labor force,it is found that the rise of the value chain has a heterogeneous impact on the employment of China’s manufacturing labor force.Among them,foreign investment,technological innovation and wage gap are important factors that produce the heterogeneous impact.The specific results show that: on the one hand,the rise of the value chain has obvious skill heterogeneity in the impact of the employment ratio of different skilled labors.Among them,the rise of the value chain has a promotion effect on the employment proportion of medium and high-skilled labor,while it has a restraining effect on the employment of low-skilled labor.In contrast,the rise of the value chain has a more obvious effect on the promotion of the employment of high-skilled labor.From the perspective of industry differentiation,due to the differences in the technical levels of the industries involved,the impact of rising value chains in different industries on the employment of laborers with different skills in China’s manufacturing industry presents significant differences.Among them,for medium-and high-tech industries,the rise of China’s manufacturing value chain has significantly boosted the employment share of middle-skilled labor,while reducing the employment of low-skilled labor.In contrast,as far as low-skilled industries are concerned,the rise of China’s value chain has significantly boosted the employment of high-and medium-skilled laborers and reduced the proportion of low-skilled laborers;On the other hand,through the mechanism regression,it can be found that technological innovation and foreign investment are important mediating factors that affect the employment proportion of high-and medium-skilled labor in the rising value chain,and can effectively promote the employment proportion of high-skilled labor and medium-skilled labor in the process of increasing the value chain.The wage gap with the high-skilled labor force is an important factor contributing to the decline in the employment share of the low-skilled labor force.Whether in medium-,high-skilled or low-skilled industries,the wage gap will cause the rise of the value chain to inhibit the continued decline in the employment share of low-skilled labor.Fourth,the recent trade frictions between countries are profoundly affecting the trade policies between countries,and there are uncertainties in my country’s trade policies.Therefore,this paper further examines the relationship between value chain climbing,trade policy uncertainty and manufacturing labor employment.From the perspective of employment scale,the uncertainty of trade policy has obviously inhibited the promotion of the value chain climbing on the scale of labor employment.From the perspective of high-skilled labor employment,the rise of the value chain with trade policy uncertainty has significantly increased the proportion of high-skilled labor employment.The reason is that trade policy uncertainty has a negative effect on the technological innovation behavior of enterprises,stimulating the increase in the proportion of high-skilled labor employment.Increase.At the same time,the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the employment of middle-skilled labor in China’s manufacturing industry is opposite to that of high-skilled labor,which significantly inhibits the promotion of value chain climbing on the employment of middle-skilled labor.In contrast,trade policy uncertainty has a negative impact on low-skilled labor employment.Under the influence of trade policy uncertainty,the rise of the value chain has inhibited the employment proportion of low-skilled labor,and the inhibition effect is more obvious in low-skilled industries.Finally,based on the article,we found that China needs to increase the scale of labor employment and ensure the employment of laborers with different skills.Therefore,it is recommended to boost the manufacturing value chain,improve technological innovation capabilities,improve the income distribution system,promote foreign investment facilitation,and reduce trade policy uncertainty. |
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