The Impact Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On China’s Manufacturing Employment Scale

Employment is an important driving force for economic and social development and is closely linked to people’s wellbeing.However,as global trade frictions intensify,China is facing trade policy uncertainty(referred to as TPU)has increased abruptly,which threatens the steady and healthy development of employment in my country.To achieve durable employment progress,reducing TPU is necessary.This paper uses DID method and the panel dada of 1998-2007 Chinese manufacturing firms to construct Quasi natural experimental framework to study what and how TPU affects employment under the background of China’s permanent "Most Favored Nation" status after China’s accession to the WTOAA.The results showed that:(1)When TPU decreased by a large margin,the employment would increase greatly;(2)TPU would affect employment through export trade and technology advance channel;(3)For high-wage companies,capital-intensive companies,eastern and central companies,TPU’s effect was more apparent.Meanwhile,this paper implemented a placebo test,a same tendency hypothesis test and a two-period DID method test to ensure the estimated outcome reliable.Policy proposals were dished according to outcome,which can reduce TPU adverse effect on employment.This paper brings the research perspective to the relationship between the TPU and China’s manufacturing employment,which is rarely involved in literature,and systematically reveals how the TPU affects China’s manufacturing employment,enriching and expanding the field.At the same time,the research method of the DID method adopted ensures reliable results and avoids potential endogeneity problems.