| Land systems constitute the terrestrial component of the Earth system and encompass all processes and activities related to the human use of land,including socioeconomic,technological and organizational investments and arrangements,as well as the benefits gained from land and the unintended social and ecological outcomes of societal activities.Land system changes are the direct result of human decision making at multiple scales ranging from local land owners decisions to national scale land use planning and global trade agreements.The aggregate impact of many local land system changes has far reaching consequences for the Earth System that feedback on ecosystem services,human well-being and decision making.As a consequence,land system change is both a cause and consequence of socio-ecological processes.With the global population growth intensifies competition for land resources,how to understand the process of land system evolution,especially the trade-off relationship between the key land conversion and the simulation of the situation,and then provide important decision-making basis for the policy development,which is the current land system important issues in the study.Jiangsu Province is one of the developed provinces in coastal China.It is also one of the provinces that have the contradiction between urban expansion and cultivated land loss.In face of the increasingly tense situation of land resources utilization,how to seek sustainability,explore the possible development path between urbanization and cultivated land protection,use the state of the art of land system theory and model,classify the Jiangsu land system,and simulate its future development is an important question that deserves the need for scientific researchers and policy makers to think and solve.This thesis took Jiangsu Province as study area.Based on the concept,theory and method of land system,this paper constructs the Jiangsu land system classification on the basis of the main contradiction between the urban expansion/intensification and cultivated land loss,especially focusing on the urban land system under different population densities and agricultural land system under different cropping systems and farmland forms.At the same time,this study used CLUMondo model by setting land use order,local suitability and land use transition sequences of the Jiangsu land systems to establish the land system simulation model.At last,the impact of different urbanization patterns on the protection of cultivated land caused by population growth is the main storyline of scenarios.Three scenarios of Jiangsu land system from 2010 to 2040 are set up.Based on these scenarios,this study simulated different land system development in Jiangsu Province to explore the sustainable development path and the optimization of land resource utilization.The main results are as follows.(1)According to the main contradiction of land resources utilization in Jiangsu Province,the land system is divided into four parts:urban,agricultural,natural and coastal land system.The urban land system is further divided into different levels based on different types of population agglomeration.Meanwhile,the agricultural land system is divided into different kinds of farmlands based on different cropping systems and farmland forms.The results of land system classification reflect the intensity and spatial distribution of land resources in Jiangsu Province,and provides reliable data support for model simulation.(2)In the process of model construction,the land use order is firstly considered.Specifically,the orders for providing population and farmland are set by urban and agricultural land system,respectively.Secondly,the land suitability parameters are calculated and a total of thirteen driving factors are considered in five aspects,including terrain,location,climate,soil and economic development.Finally,in the transfer matrix module setting,not only the transfer path is taken into account,but also the transfer years are considered,such as the construction of the urban land with different population densities for each year,and the conversion of cultivated land to different types of urban land systems 10-30 years ranging from the number of years set,reflecting the evolution of the land system trajectory and time effect.(3)Based on the 2010-2040 population forecast data and the data of cultivated land in 2010,three kinds of land system simulation scenarios were set up to simulate the development of land system under different scenarios.The results show that the development of urbanization in Jiangsu Province will be intensified in the future.The total amount of cultivated land protection cannot be lost,but its output will be reduced to a certain extent.At the same time,the urbanization development in southern and central Jiangsu is more active,while the northern part is not prominent.This thesis established the Jiangsu land system classification based on the concept and theory of land system,focusing on the main contradiction of land use in the study area and making a detailed division of urban and agricultural land system by using data like population density,cropping systems and farmland forms,which has broken through the homogeneity and singleness of the original LUCC classification system,and demonstrated the different intensity and spatial distribution of land resource utilization in the study area.This study also enriches the case studies of land system classification and innovates its theory by certain extent.At the same time,taking the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land protection in Jiangsu Province as the main storylines,combined with the influence of coastal reclamation on the balance of cultivated land,the future development of land system in Jiangsu Province is simulated.The scenarios are closely related to the demand of economic and social development.The results can provide more detailed scientific decision-making recommendations to evaluate the urbanization development,cultivated land protection and coastal development in Jiangsu Province. |
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