Study On Industrial Structure Upgrading Effect Of Trade Structure Along The "Belt And Road" Countries

Whether integration into the global value chain can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure,how to improve the export structure to adapt to the adjustment of domestic industrial structure,these questions are two hot topics in the international economy.The two issues are essentially associated with how the trade structure affects the upgrading of the industrial structure.The first issue involves the structure of intermediate goods trade,and the second problem can be solved by the technical structure of export commodities.This paper uses different research methods and frameworks to analyze the effect of trade structure on industrial structure upgrading.When discussing the influence of the intermediate goods trade structure,the idea of “from the whole to different parts”is adopted,the fixed effect model,the 2SLS method,the PCSE method of panel data regression and the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust Newey-West method are used to explore whether the increase of the proportion of intermediate goods trade can promote the upgrading of industrial structure,that is,whether further integration into the global value chain can promote the upgrading of industrial structure from the aspects of the whole countries along "Belt and Road",four regions and each countries separately.When discussing the impact of the technical structure of export commodities,the idea of “highlight commonality” is adopted,and through the classification of countries,this paper tries to study the specific impact of export structure of different types of countries;because the technical structure of export commodities has a complicated effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,the method of adding the quadratic term of explanatory variables is taken to explore the possible nonlinear relationship between the two,and a regression model containing only level term of explanatory variables is added to supplement the research results.The main findings are as follows:1.From the overall level of the countries along the “Belt and Road”,increasing the trade proportion of intermediate goods has a significant inhibitory effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;in terms of four regions,it is beneficial to increase the trade proportion of intermediate goods in the region of East Asia and Southeast Asia to which China belongs.The upgrading of industrial structure is not conducive to the other three regions;for each country alone,there are 3 countries where the increase in the trade proportion of intermediate goods has a significant effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,and 6 countries has not,while the effect of the rest 41 countries is not significant.The results of the robustness test using global national data show that:on the whole level,increasing the trade proportion of intermediate goods has a significant inhibitory effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;in terms of eleven regions,it is beneficial to increase the trade proportion of intermediate goods in the region of East Asia and Southeast Asia to which China belongs,while other regions are not conducive;from each country alone,only 12 of the 131 countries where an increase in the trade proportion of intermediate goods can significantly promoted the upgrading of industrial structure,while 24 countries can not,the impact of the remaining 95 countries is not significant.2.For the resource-based countries along “Belt and Road”,expanding the export ratio of raw materials is beneficial to the upgrading of industrial structure and there are still some achievable space for such countries to increase the proportion of raw materials exports,but space is limited;increasing the export ratio of resource-based primary products has an inhibitory effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;the promotion of the export ratio of low-tech industries has an uncertain effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;the promotion of the export ratio of medium-tech products has a “U”-shaped effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,and can promote industrial structure after breaking the turning point,however whether it can be broken is a problem to be tested;increasing the export ratio of high-tech products has a“U”-shaped effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,but the reality is on the left side of the “U”-shape,that is,improving the high-tech products export ratio will still inhibit the upgrading of industrial structure.For the low-tech countries along the “Belt and Road”,expanding the export ratio of raw materials is not significant for the upgrading of industrial structure;expanding the export ratio of resource-based primary products will inhibit the upgrading of industrial structure;expanding the export ratio of low-tech products and medium-tech products is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure;the expansion of the export ratio of high-tech products has no significant effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.For high-tech countries along the “Belt and Road”,increasing the export ratio of raw materials and low-tech products will have an adverse impact on the upgrading of industrial structure;increasing the export ratio of resource-based primary products and high-tech products will have a significant inverted “U”-shaped effect on industrial structure upgrade,but the reality is on the left side of the “U”-shape,which means a promoting effect,but the promotion effect is weakening;improving the export ratio of medium-tech products has a significant inverted “U”-shaped effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.The robustness tests show that the majority of the regression results of the global countries are consistent to the “Belt and Road” regression results.The inconsistency of a few regression results is the weakening of the “Belt and Road” regression results,but it is not negative.There is no completely opposite result of the robustness test and the basic regression.The innovations of this paper are as follows: 1.Comprehensively combing and constructing the influencing factors and influencing mechanisms of international trade and trade structure on industrial structure changes,and making up for the lack of theoretical basis research of international trade on industrial structure changes in the existing research.2.Giving a detailed empirical analysis of the theoretical issue of whether the integration of global value chains can promote the upgrading of industrial structure,so that this theoretical proposition is unified with practice.3.From the perspective of industrial structure upgrade,the paper gives specific ways for different types of countries to adjust the technical structure of export commodities,this enriches the theory of how trade structure affects industrial structure changes,and has certain reference meanings for different types of countries to adjust their export structure.