An Analysis About The Impact Of "One Belt One Road" On The Trade Between China And Countries Along

In 2013,during the journey on Mid and Southeast Asia,the Belt and Road(or One Belt And One Road,B&R)had been defined by president Xi Jingpin.From then on,this topic is highly regarded by academic circle,and there are many research findings about B&R.However,there are only a few researches analysis about the impact of B&R on the trade between China and countries along,and that is the question we intends to study in this essay?After a review of current situations of trade,we found that,Chinese exports to One Belt And One Road countries(OBOR countries)have increased,and the growth rate is higher than that of non-OBOR countries.So how does B&R course this result,and what is B&R's impact on product structure and regional structure of trade.The mechanism analysis finds that,B&R has promote total trade volume between China and the countries along;and because the differences in production cost,demand and consumption,trade cost,B&R's impacts is different on the trade of different products,with different areas.In order to examine the mechanism analysis,we use gravity model to possess panel data in empirical test.The proposal of the B&R is expressed as a dumbl variable,and control group is selected.For matching theoretical analysis,we adopt SITC classification to classify products into 10 categories,and classify OBOR countries to different area.And here are the conclusions:1.The impact on the scale of trade shows that,B&R's promotion on Chinese export to OBOR countries is more apparent than import.2.The impact on the trade of different products shows that,(1)B&R did not promotes Chinese primary commodities' export,indeed some primary commodities' export(SITC 0?1?4)had been diminished.However,the promotion on manufactured commodities' export is significant.(2)And different from export,there some kinds of primary commodities' import(SITC 1?4)had been promoted.There some kinds of manufactured commodities(SITC 6?7),both export and import had be promoted.It is worth noting that,(1)Two kinds(SITC 6?7)of products' import and export is promoted together,.and intra-industry trade cooperation is deepen.(2)Because the related transport facilities are not operated yet,import of SITC-3 products has not promoted yet.And differences in demand course the promotion of SITC-8 products' export is not significant.3.The impact on the trade with different areas shows that,(1)A few kinds of products' trade with non-OBOR countries is decreased.(2)The promotion on the import and export between China and Eastern-Europe are significant.(3)The promotion on export to south Asia and south-east Asia is huge and significant,but there is not significant impact on on the import from this area;(3)There is not significant impact on the trade between China and the rest B&R areas.Finally,we provide five suggestions: 1.Improve Chinese import from OBOR,promote balance of our trade;2.adhere to the goals of the Belt and Road and further strengthen the development of infrastructure connectivity;3.Government provides reasonable guidance and pay more attentions on the development of intra-industry trade with OBOR countries.4.enterprises adjust develop strategies on SITC-8 products' s trade cooperation with OBOR countries;5.adjust the trade proportion structure between OBOR countries and non-OBOR countries.