Research On Adjustment Space Of Basic Pension Insurance Contribution Rate For Urban Employees In China

The Chinese economy is currently facing downside risks,and due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war,the development of Chinese enterprises is facing difficulties.In this context,the country has implemented two large-scale tax and fee reduction policies since 2018.The most important measure is to reduce the social insurance rate.Since 2016,the state has gradually reduced the social pooling rate of employee endowment insurance from 20% to 16%.Is the current reduction of the endowment insurance contribution rate sustainable? Under the current policy,how much room is there for lowering the pension insurance contribution rate? If policy intervention is implemented,can the pension insurance contribution rate be continuously reduced? In view of the above problems,this paper combs the development history of China’s urban employee endowment insurance and calculates the actual contribution rate of endowment insurance.Based on this,it designs two options: one-time adjustment and periodic adjustment of endowment insurance contribution rates.By constructing an actuarial model for pension insurance,we assessed the adjustment space for pension insurance contribution rates under the two scenarios,and continued to test the adjustment space for pension insurance contribution rates under different policy interventions and policy portfolio intervention.Based on this,the research in this paper finds:First of all,in terms of the status of endowment insurance contribution rates,China’s current endowment insurance contribution rate has a "false high" phenomenon.The actual endowment insurance contribution rate in China is far lower than the policy rate and the equilibrium rate.Compared with typical European countries,China’s total endowment insurance contribution rate and corporate contribution rate are higher than the European average,but the individual contribution rate is lower than the European average.Second,it is unsustainable to reduce the pension insurance contribution rate to24% under the current policy.If implemented in accordance with this policy,the employee pension insurance fund will have a short-term deficit in 2033 and a cumulative balance deficit in 2042.By the end of the forecast period,the cumulative balance deficit in 2060 will reach 727.34 trillion yuan.Under the current 24%contribution rate,the pension insurance contribution rate will be adjusted downward at a rate of 0.06% every two years.By 2041,the pension insurance reduction rate will be reduced to 23.23%.If the pension insurance fund is to maintain the balance of income and expenditure in 2019-2060,the pension insurance contribution rate needs to be adjusted at a rate of 1.06% every two years,and the pension insurance contribution rate in 2060 will reach 46.26%.Or at a rate of 0.14% every 5 years,the pension insurance rate reduction rate in 2041 will be reduced to 23.30%,at which time the income and expenditure balance of the pension insurance fund can be maintained.If the pension insurance fund is to maintain the balance of income and expenditure in 2019-2060,the pension insurance contribution rate needs to be increased by 2.48% every five years to46.32% by 2060.Finally,if current policies are adjusted,multiple policy interventions are implemented.With the introduction of the delayed retirement policy,the employee pension insurance fund will have a short-term deficit in 2041 and a cumulative balance deficit in 2055.If the pension insurance contribution rate is adjusted in stages,at the rate of 0.18% every two years,the pension insurance contribution rate will be reduced to 21.11% by 2050.At this time,the income and expenditure balance of the pension fund can be guaranteed.If the pension insurance fund is to maintain the balance of payments within 2060,it is necessary to increase it to 29.69% by 2060 at the rate of0.27% every two years based on the current contribution rate of 24%.Or at a rate of0.42% every 5 years,to 21.07% in 2050,at this time,the income and expenditure of the pension fund can be guaranteed.If the pension insurance fund is to be maintained in the balance of payments in 2060,it will be increased by 0.64% every 5 years to 29.74%by 2060.On this basis,the state-owned capital transfer social security policy will continue to be introduced.The accumulated balance of the employee pension insurance fund will have a deficit in 2060,and the deficit of the year will reach 23.70 trillion yuan.If a periodical adjustment is made to the pension insurance contribution rate on this basis,the rate will be reduced by 0.11% every 2 years to 21.63% by 2060,at which time the income and expenditure of the pension fund can be guaranteed.On this basis,the policy of continuing to introduce pensions into the market will continue,and the accumulated balance of employee pension funds will not show a deficit in 2060.On the basis of the 24% contribution rate,it will be reduced to 20.63% by 2060 at a rate of0.16% every 2 years.At this time,the income and expenditure of the pension fund can be guaranteed.Or at a rate of 0.38% every 5 years,and down to 20.60% by 2060.At this time,the balance of income and expenditure of the pension fund can be guaranteed.In short,under the current policy,if the pension insurance contribution rate is reduced to 24%,this fee reduction policy is unsustainable.After introducing the delayed retirement policy,the state-owned capital transfer social security policy,and the pension entry policy,if these three policies are implemented separately,the reduction of the pension insurance contribution rate is also unsustainable.Only with the intervention of the three combination policies,the current 24% contribution rate is not only sustainable,but can be reduced to 20.63% at a rate of 0.16% every 2 years or to20.60% at a rate of 0.38% every 5 years.