Research On Scheme Optimization And Effect Analysis Of The Central Adjustment System Of Enterprise Pension Fund

Against the background of increasingly severe population aging and economic growth at an intermediate and high speed,the situation of inter-provincial endowment insurance revenues and expenditures has clearly differentiated.Fund expenditure growth has increased while income growth has declined.Some provinces have raised alarms for their pension finances.Although the fund as a whole can still maintain a balance,at the current provincial level,there is insufficient incremental pension funds and the existing funds cannot be allocated to each other.The financial imbalance of pension funds will continue to increase in the future.Because of the obstacles to the realization of the national pension insurance in one step,the central adjustment system was introduced as a transitional policy plan.In June 2018,the State Council issued the "Notice on Establishing a Central Adjustment System for Enterprise Employees' Basic Pension Insurance Funds" to propose the implementation of a central adjustment system to balance the burden of pensions in various provinces through national transfers of funds to ensure the distribution of pensions.Provincial transfer ratios started from 3% in 2018 and gradually increased to 3.5% in 2019.This article mainly discusses the optimization of the transfer ratio and the evaluation of the implementation effect of the central adjustment system,and calculates the pension redistribution effect and the change trend of the pension balance under different simulated transfer schemes from a medium-and long-term perspective.This article is divided into six chapters in addition to the introduction: Chapter 1 defines the relevant concepts and main theories of the central transfer system;Chapter 2 analyzes the basic content of the central adjustment system,summarizes the reform process of the basic pension insurance co-ordination level,and analyzes the transfer from multiple perspectives Realistic basis for the establishment of the system;Chapter 3 carries out model construction,parameter setting and specific calculation of the insured in-service and retired population,and on this basis preliminarily calculates the income and expenditure of the provincial pension insurance fund;Chapter 4 is based on the difference in the proportion of adjustments Construct the current adjustment plan,the optimal adjustment plan,and the high ratio adjustment plan,and initially compare the adjustment effects of each simulation plan;Chapter V specifically analyzes the distribution of inter-provincial adjustment funds under each simulation plan,the current status of the income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund and Trends in revenue and expenditure changes;Chapter 6 summarizes the effects of the implementation of simulation programs and proposes countermeasures.This article mainly draws the following conclusions: Without the implementation of the central adjustment system,the polarization of regional balances has become more and more serious,and the inter-provincial revenue and expenditure situation has gradually become severe.The policy goal of minimizing the variance of the inter-provincial pension balance as the optimal adjustment plan is that the optimal upper solution ratio is 4.54%.Increasing the upper transfer ratio can improve the adjustment effect,but continuing to increase the transfer ratio beyond the optimal ratio will produce reverse adjustment.effect.After the implementation of the current transfer plan(3.5% transfer ratio),the financial sustainability of 23 provinces has been improved in 2020.The variance of the interprovincial balance has decreased by 69.01% compared with before the transfer.Provinces turn losses into profits.After the implementation of the optimal transfer plan(4.54% transfer ratio),the total transfer scale has increased by 29.69% year-on-year,and the transfer effect has been significantly enhanced.In 2020,the interprovincial balance variance of pension insurance has decreased by 77.37% compared with before the transfer.All of the provincial balances have turned into losses.After the implementation of the high proportion transfer plan(7% transfer ratio),the inter-provincial balance variance has increased compared with Plan 2,which has affected the fairness and efficiency of the central adjustment system.