Research On Urban Real Estate Risk Monitoring And Preventio

As China’s economy has entered a high quality development from high speed growth,affected by the slowing down step of urbanization and aging of population and other factors,the development of the real estate market has shifted entered to the new stage in which the aggregate is basically flat and the structure is seriously differentiated from the total imbalance stage of demand greater than supply.The high housing prices in some hot cities and the unsolved inventory in some third and fourth tier cities coexist,causing distortions in resource allocation,raising business and labor costs,and affecting the healthy development of the real economy.The real estate market is deeply connected with financial market,and the real estate risk is highly destructive,which is easily affect the stability of the financial system,and even the financial crisis and the recession of the whole economy will be created.Urban housing issues are related to the well-being of people’s livelihood.Real estate risks not only affect economic development,but also affect the realization of the goal of housing for all people and the harmony and stability of the whole society.Therefore,it is of great significance to objectively identify the current urban real estate risk factors,scientifically monitor the changes of real estate risks,formulate effective regulation policies to prevent real estate risks,which will prevent and defuse major risks,promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry.This paper discusses the monitoring and prevention of urban real estate risks.On the basis of absorbing and learning from domestic and foreign research results,it closely combines the development status of China’s urban real estate market and uses principal component analysis,dynamic factor,spatial panel and other econometric models to form innovative results in the study of real estate risks in the aspects of model and empirical test,risk prevention and control policies.This paper first defines the basic concepts of real estate risk,real estate risk monitoring and prevention,and on the basis of relevant research at home and abroad,discusses the urban real estate risk formation reasons and production mechanism,clarifies the basic path of systemic financial risk caused by real estate risk,and constructs the urban real estate risk monitoring index system.Secondly,based on reviewing the urban real estate risk cases in China,this paper summarizes the current urban real estate risk performance,and further analyzes the influence of urban real estate risk to regional economic development and micro-economic subjects.Thridly,this paper comprehensively use principal component analysis and dynamic factor models to construct a comprehensive real estate risk index from five dimensions: real estate development risk,financing risk,price risk,inventory risk,and urban environmental risk,and evaluate the real estate risk in 35 large and medium-sized cities across the country.The Markov switching transfer model is used for risk early warning analysis,and the influence of real estate risk on economic development and spatial spilter effect is empirically analyzed through panel data vector autoregression and spatial panel measurement models.Forthly,this paper analyzes the current monitoring and guard against city real estate risk facing the reality of the plight,and from the local government,financial institutions,the development enterprise and buyers market main body Angle analyzes the cause of the trouble.Finally,drawing on the experience of monitoring and preventing real estate risk policies from other countries,it is proposed that under the new development pattern,various regulatory policy tools should be used flexibly and prudently,and policies should be implemented according to local conditions and coordinated.Improve housing security system,standardize the order of the rental housing market,accelerate the multi-agent supply and multi-channel security housing system reform;We will deepen reform of the land,taxation,financial system,to build a complete legal system of real estate,actively promote the real estate market stable healthy development of the long-term mechanism of the ground.The main research results of this paper include:(1)Excessive speculation,imperfect market system,information asymmetry and other external factors such as the close relationship between finance and real estate,macroeconomic fluctuations and changes in urban planning will easily lead to urban real estate risks.(2)Real estate risks will increase marco leverage and asset price bubbles,and the combination of real estate,shadow banking and local government debt risks will easily impact the entire financial system and cause systemic financial risks..(3)Urban real estate risks will crowd out the real investment,and the negative wealth effect of housing prices will inhibit social consumption,thus affecting regional economic development.Meanwhile,the real estate risk will cause the decline of government land and other financial revenue,the uncompleted development projects,enterprise bankruptcy,bank bad debts,and the interruption of supply by buyers,resulting in losses to the interests of various market subjects.(4)The results of empirical analysis show that the comprehensive risk index of real estate risk in this paper is reasonable,which improves the comprehensiveness and operability of risk monitoring,and the risk early warning analysis is timely and accurate,which has enlightening significance for improving the early warning system of real estate risk;The influence of urban real estate risk on itself decreases with time,and it has a significant inhibiting effect on economic growth.There is Granger causality between urban real estate risk and economic growth of each other.In the short term,economic growth will be conducive to the improvement of real estate risk.There is obvious agglomeration characteristics of urban real estate risks,population growth and economic growth will have negative effects on real estate risks,and urban real estate risks have a positive spillover effect on neighboring cities.(5)The regulation and control policies to prevent the risks of urban real estate are faced with such difficulties as poor policy effect,lack of continuity and stability,heavy administrative emphasis and imperfect long-term mechanism.Through the game analysis of interest among the real estate market,we find that the current dilemma of regulation and control is solved,should adhere to the basic orientation of“Houses are for living in and not for speculative investment”,ensuring people basic living needs,broaden the residential investment channels,the integrated use of finance,land,taxation,investment,legislation,speed up the establishment and perfect long-term mechanism.