Comme Rcia L Real Estate Pro Ject Risk Management Re Searc H

Since 2010, as the " second-hand housing transaction tax ", "limit restrictions", such as intensive control of house prices policy introduced, the residential real estate development enterprises encounter "winter", to alleviate the pressure of the capital, to reach the company long-term development, the traditional residential real estate enterprises, such as vanke, poly, green space and other big push into commercial real estate, hoping for a "second spring" in commercial real estate, commercial real estate in our country have been vigorously developed. But compared with the residential real estate projects, commercial real estate project development mode is more complex and capital demand a bigger, longer investment cycle characteristics make commercial real estate project is facing more risk, as developers can’t carry on the effective management, the project could fail even scrapped, bring immeasurable losses to the development enterprise, so how to carry on the risk management of commercial real estate project research becomes a very important research subject.In this paper refer to a large number of literature on the basis of risk management theory to do in this paper, combined with the characteristics of commercial real estate projects, build 3 d model for the commercial real estate project risk management; In terms of risk management research methods, the stages of risk management methods to do the comparison, selection and improvement the applicable to commercial real estate project risk management methods, has formed the commercial real estate project risk management method system; Finally, according to the specific case fuzhou CangShan wanda plaza project, to identify the risk in different stages of the project, lists the project risk factors secondary listing; Dynamic assessment of risk in different stages of the project using risk figure- probability method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, sensitivity analysis and hierarchical analysis and break-even analysis method, has realized from the general to the more specific factors of risk assessment; According to the evaluation results put forward the corresponding control and response, and through the dynamic risk monitoring early warning and figure of management process to implement the dynamic monitoring, thus a systematic research on the whole life cycle of project risk management.The purpose of this study, it is through this thesis research can effectively reduce the risk of such projects, realize the effectiveness of risk management, improve the project risk management level of developer; Secondly, the risk management of 3 d model and the risk management method can be widely used in commercial real estate project risk management; 3 it is to hope that through the theoretical research and fuzhou CangShan wanda plaza, empirical research of the project, get a systematic and practical mode of commercial real estate project risk management, thus for domestic commercial real estate project risk management play a reference and reference value.