Research On Financial Risk Of Real Estate And Its Prevention Strategy In China

With the rapid development of China's real estate market and capital market,real estate finance and real estate industry have formed a mutual support relationship.At present,China's real estate market is overheated,housing prices in some areas deviate from normal prices,and the level of real estate bubbles is intensifying.China's real estate financial financing system is incomplete,and real estate financing channels are mainly based on bank credit,which has caused a large number of systemic risks to be transferred to the banking system.Although,real estate financial risk is still under control now,but real estate financial risk is hidden,lagging and long-term,and China's real estate financial has high risk concentration and market mechanism is not fully functional,with the fluctuation of economic cycle and the heat of China's real estate market is rising steadily.How to effectively prevent real estate financial risks is of great significance to the stability of China's real estate financial system.This paper uses VAR model,Investigating the influence of short-term interest rate,long-term interest rate and real estate bubble level on real estate financial risk.The conclusion shows that short-term interest rate is affected by economic cycle fluctuations,and its adjustment effect is fluctuating;the long-term interest rate will increase the borrowing cost of real estate industry and increase the growth rate of real estate non-performing loan balance;As the risk of the real estate market continues to increase,China's real estate financial risks are also exposed.Then this paper study the reasons for the formation of real estate market risk.The results show that the current overheated investment,excessive demand and insufficient supply,and excessive financial support in China's real estate market will increase the level of China's real estate bubble,and then conducted to real estate financial risk.Then,this paper proposes a prevention strategy for real estate financial risk from the perspective of decentralizing real estate financial risks,strictly controlling real estate credit risk,and regulating the supply and demand of real estate market,and the establishment of a long-term mechanism is also important to prevent risks,and guides the long-term and orderly development of the real estate market to prevent real estate financial risks.