| Global economic imbalance is an old topic that disturbers global economic development,and it is also an important subject in the research of world economics in recent years.In previous studies on global economic imbalance,there are abundant discussions on the causes and effects of the global economic imbalance,and most of them are inseparable from the unbalanced distribution of benefits under the division of global value chain.Under the global value chain,developed countries has taken the leading position and captured majority of the revenue in global trade,which will affect developing countries undertaking labor-intensive and capital-intensive industries and labor-intensive processing in high-tech industries,which are low-end production and processing link consuming massive resources,polluting the environment and having low profits.It causes problems such as uneven development and growing gap between different economies,leading to global economic environment to adjust and change.In fact,with global economic integration,previous global value chain based on comparative advantage is likely to encounter current account imbalance and bottle-neck,and the technology spillover effect of international capital flow promote the correction of the industry structure.Then,the global value chain is facing restructuring shock and also increase trade dispute and trade frictions.Ultimately,the result will not be conducive to the stable growth of global trade and the world economy.This dissertation focuses on the following three key interrelated issues: Firstly,does the previous global value chain have a significant impact on global economic imbalance? And what is the mechanism? Secondly,dose the global economic imbalance force the restructure of global value chain? and what is the impact of technology on global value chain reconstruction? Thirdly,what is the connection between global value restructure and Sino-US trade frictions? This dissertation focuses on the internal logic relations and external influence between global imbalance,value chain restructure and trade frictions,which is significant to understand the current changes and trend of the world economic,actively ease trade frictions and promote China’s high-quality economic development under the imbalanced environment.The dissertation first reviews relevant theories and previous research literature to recognize the influence of traditional global value chain on the global value chain.Moreover,a dynamic model analyzes the reason of global value chain restructure and test the effect of the global imbalance and technology on global value restructure.Next,the Probit Model is used to empirically analyze the impact of GVC reconstruction on trade frictions and the time feature.The main conclusions can be listed as follows.(1)Global economic imbalance is a direct result of resource distribution and profit distribution in the global industrial chain and value chain which dominated by developed countries.Specially,economic imbalance is also the result of the traditional international division of labor based on the asymmetry of profit and risk.Developed economies capture most of the trade benefits relying on their technology,brands and channels superiority,instead,emerging markets and developing countries are restricted at the lower value-added activities of GVC,and engaged in assembly and processing links and get a very small payoff by exporting labor and resource.Although the global economic imbalance showed a cyclical adjustment trend,the adjustments have still taken the US economy and interest as the center.Global economic imbalance pushed value chain decomposing and restructuring in the long run,which make word economy moving in a new direction.(2)Traditional international division of labor has significantly aggravated global imbalance.It shows,in general,that economics with manufacturing comparative advantages invest their capital to developed economies with higher openness and higher returns in financial market,resulting in widening of income gap and shrinking of domestic demand,which have a significant impact on current account surplus.Besides,the trade deficit of the developed economies with more developed financial industry has been widened caused by growing income inequality and excessive consumption.It shows that the mechanism of opening asymmetry and income gap affecting global imbalance are existent.Moreover,the effect is heterogeneity according to different periods and country type,and it was weak and not significant during 1991-1999,but in 2000-2019 the effect was positive and significant.In addition,considering the factors of higher savings,lower consumption in East Asian and US dollar hegemony on global imbalance,it is found that the industrial structure of euro economies still has a significant positive effect on their economic imbalance.(3)Global economic imbalance has forced the restructuring of global value chains.The impact works through economic scale and human capital accumulation:technological progress improves labor productivity,which is conducive to expand economies scale to reduce costs and improve position.Besides,technological progress has promoted the threshold of human capital,which has a positive and significant impact on economic development and international division.The impact of technology on restructure of global value chain also has the heterogeneity characteristics according to different economies and different industries,that is,the effect of technology is significant for developed countries,however,the effect is weak and not significant in developing countries which constrained by rising costs and technical limitations.In terms of heterogeneity in different industries,empirical analysis shows that the medium-high technology industries are most affected,followed by high-tech industries,and finally low-tech industries.(4)A country’s participation in GVC restructuring has a positive and negative effect on its own trade friction.There is a significant positive relationship between relative GVC position index and trade friction,that is,the closer the division of labor in GVC between the two countries is,the higher the frequency of trade friction will be.There is a significant negative correlation between GVC participation index and trade friction.The stronger a country’s value chain participation is,the easier trade friction can be alleviated.With the growing importance of China in global value chain,it could have affected US hegemony power and its trade interests,thus leading to trade conflicts over economic imbalances.In addition,the impact of value chain restructuring on trade frictions is time-heterogeneous.From 2000 to 2008,there is a significant negative relationship between China’s participation in international division of labor and anti-dumping investigations,and after 2008,it is positive.The results show that the global economic imbalance impacts and restructures the global value chain,and it has an important impact on Sino-US economic and trade relations,such as trade friction.Taking the influence of global economic imbalance on value-chain and trade friction,all participants should closely combine their own development characteristics and carry out targeted policy construction.The dissertation puts forward five policy suggestions for China including focusing on and promoting multi-party participation in innovation,optimizing industrial structure,and actively building inclusive global value chain and so on. |
PDF Full Text Request