The Game Study On Upstream And Downstream Division Of Labor In Global Value Chains In The Context Of Sino-US Trade Frictions

With the deepening of economic globalization,the resources of countries around the world are effectively optimized and allocated globally,and the production links are constantly improved and subdivided,forming a global value chain division pattern.China,as a developing country,has developed rapidly in recent years and generally enjoys comparative advantages in natural resources and labor-intensive industries.It is engaged in low value-added production activities and is at the lower end of the value chain.As a developed country,the United States generally has comparative advantages in technology-intensive industries and often engages in high value-added production activities,which is at the high end of the value chain.In recent years,trade frictions between China and the United States have been increasing.Under the background of trade frictions between China and the United States,how to play the game between the upstream and downstream division of labor in the global value chain has become an urgent problem to be solved.The main research objective of this paper is to explore how sino-US trade friction affects the division of labor between China and the United States in the global value chain,so as to provide suggestions for China to improve the division of labor in the global value chain.Based on the analysis of sino-US trade friction and the current situation of global value chain division of labor under the background of Sino-US trade friction,this paper constructs the upstream and downstream division of labor game model of global value chain,and empirically studies the impact of Sino-US trade friction on the upstream and downstream division of labor game of Global value chain.This paper is divided into six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,the second chapter is the theoretical basis,and the third chapter analyzes the characteristics of sino-US trade friction and the current situation of sino-US participation in global value chain division.This paper analyzes the typical facts of sino-US trade friction and the upstream and downstream division of labor between the two countries in the global value chain,studies the value added trade,value chain association and the degree of embedding in the global value chain respectively,and summarizes the characteristics of Sino-US trade friction.From 2000 to 2014,from the perspective of value-added trade,China’s value-added exports to the United States were larger than that of the United States to China,and China’s value-added exports to the United States were more distributed in low-technology manufacturing and extractive industry,while the United States’ value-added exports to China were more distributed in service industry and high-tech manufacturing.In terms of value chain association,China’s export of intermediate goods to the United States is larger than its import from the United States,while the average level of forward value added and the difference between industries in the United States are higher than that in China.In terms of the degree of GVCS embedment,China has a scale advantage in simple GVCS,while the US is more competitive in complex GVCS.The trade frictions have been triggered by the US’s imposition of tariffs on China’s high-tech industries to safeguard its economic,trade and technological interests around the world.According to the comparison between the two lists of tariffs,the US has imposed more tariffs on more products than China,and the scale of tariffs is larger than China’s.The fourth chapter is the sino-US trade friction division game model under the background of global value chain analysis,this article in third countries joined the trade friction factors in the market model,constructing a dynamic game model of the division of global value chain upstream and downstream of China and the United States,depending on the type of game(price game and production)and the game order(game and successively game at the same time)to solve the products’ price and manufacturer’s profits,It has to do with monopoly advantage and tariffs.The price of intermediate goods is positively correlated with monopoly advantage and negatively correlated with tariff.In the output game,the prices of the intermediate goods in the simultaneous game are higher than in the sequential game,and in the price game,the prices of the intermediate goods in the sequential game are higher than in the simultaneous game.The order of the game has an impact on the profit of enterprises.In the output game,the profit of domestic intermediate enterprises in the game is less than that in the game at the same time.In the output game,simultaneous game and sequence game,the profit of domestic intermediate goods manufacturer increases with the increase of monopoly advantage.The fifth chapter is the sino-us trade friction division of global value chain upstream and downstream game under the background of the empirical analysis,from the perspective of the empirical model of sino-us trade friction under the background of global value chain upstream and downstream to analyse further quantitative study of labor division,from the index set to empirical analysis model set,endogenous inspection,robustness and labor heterogeneity to study.The following conclusions are drawn: the occurrence time and duration of sino-US trade friction will both widen the gap between the two countries’ value-added exports.The advance of the occurrence time of trade friction will reduce the gap in the forward value added gap,forward decomposition item of added value that participates in the first type of complex global value chain,namely intermediate goods export,which is re-exported by importers and finally absorbed by the source country,and the second type of complex global value chain,namely intermediate goods export,importers re-exported,the gap in the portion that is finally absorbed by other countries,the gap in the backward length of production and the gap in the participation status of the global value chain.And the extension of trade friction duration can expand the backword value-added gap,added value of the former to the decomposition of simple participate in global value chain of the added value of the gap between the production value of simple production sharing across countries,products’ export directly absorbed by the importers in the portion of the gap,the second type that is involved in complicated global value chain of intermediates,importers to export,the gap of the part that is finally absorbed by other countries,and the gap of the value-added in the backward decomposition of value-added that participates in the simple Global value chain,namely,the shared value of simple production produced across countries,the gap of the part directly absorbed by the importer in the export of intermediate goods and the sum of the value-added in the global value chain in the backward decomposition of value-added.The sooner trade friction occurs,the more the gap between China and the US in value chain participation status will be narrowed,and the more the gap in global value chain participation will be widened.The prolonged trade friction will narrow the gap between China and the United States in the global value chain.Bidirectional fixed instrumental variable regression model was used in endogeneity and robustness tests,and the results were relatively robust.Through further analysis of labor heterogeneity found that whether labor skills proficiency,the duration of the trade friction will widen the gap between the added value of exports,the United States and China for investment and trade friction explosion time skill labor and low skill labor industry will have a reverse effect,narrow the gap between the added value of exports in China and the United States.In addition,both the working time and remuneration of low-skilled workers will affect the gap in export added value: remuneration will expand the gap in export added value,while working time will reduce the gap in export added value.Therefore,in the context of sino-US trade friction,China is at the low end of the global value chain,while the US is at the high end of the global value chain.It can adjust the prices of intermediate goods and improve corporate profits through monopoly advantages and tariffs.And in the output game industry,domestic intermediate goods enterprises should choose the higher profit at the same time game.The duration of trade friction will widen the gap between the two countries and the timing of trade friction has different effects on different global value chain indicators.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions: In the aspect of industry,accelerate the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure,cultivate strategic emerging industries,improve industrial competitiveness;In science and technology,accelerate scientific and technological research and development,comprehensively improve China’s independent innovation capacity;In terms of foreign trade,we will stabilize the policy of opening to the outside world,actively expand overseas markets,transform the development model of foreign trade and reduce trade frictions.