| The Belt and Road Initiative undoubtedly the most important international project,it aims to stimulate economic development over a massive geographical area covering sub-regions,that almost 140 countries and 32 international organizations have signed up to the Initiative since 2013.Over the past eight years,the total trade volume between China and its Belt and Road partners has exceeded US$9.2 trillion,and the cumulative direct investment of China in countries along the route has exceeded US$130 billion,making it the world’s broadest-based and largest platform for international cooperation linking Europe,East Asia and Pacific,Central Asia,South Asia,Middle East and North Africa.Most importantly,this massive bloc of countries accounts over 64 percent of the world’s population and 1/3 of world trade.One Belt and Road’s key objectives is to ease bottlenecks for cross-border trade,through vast network of transport infrastructure,energy,and telecommunications infrastructure.But One Belt One Road is an extensive and complex initiative whose potential impacts and influences on trade are still currently pending for answers,the crucial challenge in One Belt One Road initiative is being trade is choked-off by many obstacles from different countries such as distance,transport cost,borders,partnership,political and cultural barriers.Under this framework,China and its One Belt One Road partners are investing heavily in improving transport infrastructure.China has embarked on in the last few years through Chinese-built infrastructure: railways,highways,shipping lanes and economic corridors to create jointly-built trade routes.This should reduce the cost of transportation,thus stimulating trade between China and these countries at the same time,better transport infrastructure and international connectivity of One Belt One Road countries will create greater trade opportunities by giving access to new markets for their trading goods,and reduce isolated countries which have failed to achieve trade integration.One Belt One Road Initiative is subdivided into five major routes which will comprise six economic corridors,and every corridor is important whether through sea or over land,The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is an extension of One Belt One Road Initiative,and it is more important because of strategic location.China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)aims to improve regional connectivity between China and its One Belt One Road partners.It will connect Pakistan’s Gwader port with Kashgar in western China,and will provide an alternative and important trading route that is short,safe and cost-effective to develop the trading cooperation by enhancing speed,reduced travel time,transport cost,and distance while decreasing the burden on roads,this corridor will not only benefit Pakistan and China but also have a positive spell over effect on countries of One Belt One Road by strengthening the geographical connectivity.China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)will provide an enormous investment in enhancing the rail network to make it competitive and efficient.This investment will be used to upgrade existing lines,modernizing and improving rail connections and extending the rail network.Pakistan is a central part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)linked with OBOR,the trade from one country to other parts of the world will go through the control of Pakistan.Over the years,railway network of Pakistan has been criticized for its deteriorating quality of services and fading number of passengers,freight,and trains.Lack of efforts by authorities which causes delays,frequent accidents,lead times and loss of goods.Outdated trains,poor rail linkages and manual signaling systems combined with poor infrastructure regularly burden government expenditure.The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project emphases major upgrades to Pakistan’s aging railway system,including rebuilding of the entire Main Line 1 railway.This study will investigate the impact of the expected improvement in transport infrastructure on bilateral trade for One Belt One Road countries,study the role of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor linked with OBOR Initiative,asses the transport cost and travel time for trade between One Belt One Road countries by comparing the existing route and new China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.Geographical data,qualitative and descriptive statistical methods are applied to compute the transport cost,travel time and distance.The trade potential might be raised between One Belt One Road countries is investigated and examine whether the impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on transport cost and travel time will have a positive impact on trade flows.Gravity model was applied to estimate the size of trade stemming from a changing in transport cost.The efficiency measurement of railway industry is necessary for continuous trade improvement.The current situation of railway industry of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor linked with OBOR is investigated and examine how railway industry upgrade connectivity.Data Envelopment Analysis was used to evaluate the efficiency of railway industry.Firstly,this study compares the existing route and new China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to investigate the impact of this corridor on the transport cost,travel time and distance between One Belt One Road countries.Combination of geographical data,qualitative and descriptive statistical methods are used to compute the reduction in transport cost,travel time and distance for countries along One Belt One Road.As a starting point,the network of road(Kashgar-Shanghai)and ports(Shanghai to ports of One Belt One Road countries)across the exist route to estimate the transport cost,travel time and distance between every pair of cities.From this reference point,an improved scenario where the transportation network is enriched with planned infrastructure projects of new China-Pakistan corridor,(Kashgar-Gwader)as roadway and(Gwader to ports of One Belt One Road countries)as seaway.Comparing the pre and post of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor scenarios allows to quantify the changes in transport cost,travel time and distance.The results show that European contraries,Middle East and North African countries and China can increase trade potential and show that average transport cost of shipment,travel time and distance from Kashgar to destination ports in European countries are decreased by about 1545 dollars,travel time decreased to16.3 days and distance decreased to 10084 km,and average transport cost of shipment,travel time and distance from Kashgar to destination ports in Middle East and North Africa are decreased by about 1695 dollars,travel time decreased to17.2 days and distance decreased to 10477 km.Secondly,based on the expected improvement in transport infrastructure of One Belt One Road countries and impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in reduction a transport cost,travel time and distance,this study tries to assess empirically what the impact of a reduction in transport cost might be on bilateral trade for One Belt One Road countries,and will identify the factors affecting on bilateral trade before 2013 and after 2013 by running a simulation exercise for estimating potential trade might be raised,Gravity model will be applied.The estimated results reveal that improvement in transportation infrastructure,economic size and distance have significant impact on trade flows on bilateral trade for One Belt One Road countries,and the results show that China can increase its potential trade to the most of One Belt One Road countries,and among One Belt One Road countries will benefit from an increased potential trade and other will lose.Thirdly,this study aims to examine the railway efficiency of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor linked with OBOR.It evaluates the technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency rail from 1977 to 2012 and compare them to railway efficiency over period 2013 to 2018 and rank the efficient Decision Making Units(DMUs).Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)is used to evaluate the efficiency,while techniques data analysis MAXDEA ULTRA is applied to examine slacks,listing peer,benchmark projection,and strong efficiency projection.The empirical result indicates that China forms frontier for Decision Making Units,and overall technical efficiency value before 2013 and after 2013 is 1,and Pakistan railway is inefficient,which operates at 89.8 percent level of overall technical efficiency,inputs could be decreased by10.2 percent without sacrificing output.The present research is new kind to investigate the trade potential might be raised between One Belt One Road countries and examine whether the impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on transport cost will have a positive impact on trade flows.The governments of One Belt One Road countries should plan major installation and upgradation of the transport infrastructure and regional connectivity.The upgradation of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will help increasing the freight transport.In order not to negatively affect the regional connectivity,steps must be taken to overwhelm the limitations facing by the transport infrastructure.Hence in order to enhance connectivity and connect One Belt One Road countries,a suitable rail transport model is required to increase trade flows.In short,China and Pakistan should take necessary actions for the construction of railway link to enhance trade.The governments of One Belt One Road must expand and upgrade the regional connectivity with topmost priority actions,and should take new initiative and implement the propose projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to improve trade flows,and the possibility that the One Belt One Road may eventually go beyond its current objectives towards the creation of a free trade area. |
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