Analysis Of Bilateral Trade Potential Between China And Countries Along The Belt And Road Initiative

A top development strategy proposed by the Chinese government in recent years-"One Belt,One Road" is a combination of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road.It aims to strengthen cooperation between China and its neighboring countries and regions.The inevitable requirement of the open pattern is the inevitable choice to promote the common prosperity,mutual benefit and win-win situation of the Eurasian countries.The focus and foundation of the “Belt and Road” construction is to strengthen the exchange of goods.China has high hopes for trade with countries along the route,continuously strengthen bilateral cooperation,carry out deep and multi-directional communication,actively promote and sign a series of trade cooperation agreements,and eliminate trade.Barriers to development.In this context,what is the current state of trade development between China and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative? What is the trade potential? The research on these issues will enrich and improve the connotation of the “Belt and Road” and promote and accelerate the construction of the “Belt and Road”.Based on this,this paper first analyzes the dynamic development of bilateral trade between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” based on relevant theoretical literature.Next,it expands the original trade gravity model and builds import and export trade with the characteristics of trade along the line.Gravity model;Finally,from the two aspects of total and regional classification,the import and export trade potential of China's countries along the line are measured and analyzed.Based on the analysis of the above three parts,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)According to the regression analysis of the export trade gravity model,the trade import tariffs and spatial distances of the countries along the route have a negative impact on exports,leading to the trend of China's export trade to countries along the coast to the concentration of coastal countries;The agreement has a positive effect on exports,but the effect still needs time to gradually release.(2)According to the regression analysis of the import trade gravity model,China's per capita GDP,China's import tariffs,whether it borders China,and the country's real exchange rate are important factors affecting China's import trade from countries along the line.At the same time,signing a free trade agreement It also promotes imports,but compared with the mature World Trade Organization,China and the relevant countries have signed a free trade agreement,and the relevant effects will take time to gradually release.(3)According to the analysis of the calculation results of trade potential between China and countries along the route,China's trade market structure along the countries or regions still has large optimization potential.The establishment of export trade relations is too fragmented and lacks focus and pertinence.At the same time,it is both important and difficult to explore different potential trade-oriented countries to adopt different trade measures to explore the potential of export trade to these countries.The structure of import trade products is too concentrated.There are certain regional characteristics of China's import trade product structure along the “Belt and Road” countries.How to deeply explore the potential of import trade from these countries is both a key point and a difficult point.