| As an important financing channel for enterprises and an important investment place for shareholders,the stock market is an important part of the financial industry.orderly and healthy operation.Research on the comprehensive impact of stock market crash risk and its early warning management can actively promote the healthy operation of my country’s stock market and strengthen the stable and orderly development of my country’s capital market.Based on this consideration,this paper comprehensively uses the theoretical knowledge of asset bubble theory,financial risk theory,positive feedback effect theory,complex network system theory and other theoretical knowledge.The proposed early warning management plan and targeted measures can not only further innovate and develop financial theories and strengthen investors’ awareness of risk management,but also help the regulatory authorities of various countries to strengthen stock market supervision,prevent stock market fluctuations and financial contagion,and maintain the stable and orderly operation of the financial market.Significance.From the theoretical point of view,the first is to build a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to establish a stock market crash risk set,and verify that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is also applicable to the characteristics of my country’s stock market.Compared with the traditional risk measurement method,the theoretical results of my country’s stock market and the results of the actual financial data of A shares are compared and analyzed by constructing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,which further verifies that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is suitable for the characteristics of my country’s stock market.The second is to further enrich the relevant information on the risk factors of stock market crash,further expand the measurement method of stock market crash risk,and provide decision-making support tools for relevant government departments.The third is that the stock market crash risk is closely related to the emotional side,and there is a crash critical point.This paper uses the crash early warning model to verify the existence of the critical point.From a practical point of view,the first is to allow investors and peer experts to more scientifically grasp the reasons for the formation of stock market crash risks,the set of risk factors,and how to carry out early warning management of risks,improve the operation efficiency of my country’s capital market,and strengthen the healthy,orderly and stable financial market.Operation,providing reference and reference for regulatory authorities to regulate abnormal fluctuations in the capital market and investor risk management.Second,the research topic and research content of this paper are in line with the policy policy of "holding the bottom line of no systemic financial risk" put forward in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.Conduct systematic research on a concise basis,and then provide risk early warning management measures,which can make financial decisions for government management departments and rational investment behaviors of enterprises and investors under the continuous impact of the new crown epidemic and the macro background of economic transformation and development.Provide reference and reference.Third,China’s capital market has not been fully opened.The stock market is still a relatively independent investment and financing market even after the introduction of relevant policies such as Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.In addition,domestic investors are all risk-averse.Evaluation of the construction of stock market crash risk indicators and risk early warning management,which helps investors to scientifically judge the stock market and better deal with stock market risks.This paper takes the comprehensive evaluation and early warning management of stock market crash risk as the research object.The research method combines literature research,systematic research,theoretical research and other methods,according to the logic main line of "what-why-how",aiming at clarifying the characteristics of stock market crash risk and the risk factors through theoretical analysis and empirical model establishment.Formation and its causative mechanism,on the basis of building a comprehensive risk evaluation index system,the early warning model and countermeasures of stock market crash risk are proposed,and policy suggestions are given.This thesis is divided into seven chapters,the main contents are as follows: The first part is the introduction,which is also the general framework of the research of the thesis.According to the content of this part of the chapter,firstly put forward the research background and research value and significance of this paper,then systematically sort out the research status of stock market crash at home and abroad,and then summarize the main content of this research,research ideas and research The main method,and finally extracted the innovation of this research.The second part is the theoretical overview,which involves the definition of related concepts and the theoretical basis that this thesis needs to learn from.It mainly defines the concepts related to stock market crash and stock market crash risk,focuses on the introduction of the connotation and characteristics of stock market crash risk,and elaborates on theories such as positive feedback theory and complex network system effect theory.As a source of theoretical support for the follow-up research of the whole article.The third part is the important stock market crash events at home and abroad: the cause,development and collapse.Taking seven major crash events in the United States,Japan,and China as examples,this paper analyzes the cause of each crash event,the rescue of the market after the crash,and the influence of later generations,and summarizes the common characteristics of crash events to establish a crash risk assessment.The indicator system lays the foundation for practice.The fourth part is the theory and method of stock market crash risk assessment.It studies the characteristics of stock market crash,puts forward the enlightenment of previous stock markets at home and abroad,and proposes construction principles and methods for the construction of stock market crash risk evaluation index system.The fifth part is the construction and application of stock market crash risk evaluation index system.Clarify the construction principle of the stock market crash risk index system and the basis for the division of each classification index.On the basis of following relevant principles such as scientificity,systematicness,comprehensiveness,comparability,etc.,the construction includes one first-level indicator,four second-level indicators and A stock market crash risk evaluation index system with 17three-level indicators;then use the brainstorming method,expert consultation method,principal component analysis method and correlation analysis method to screen indicators and construct an indicator judgment matrix,put forward a multi-level indicator description,and finally establish a preliminary evaluation indicators.Taking the example from April to August 2015,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to solve the problem.The sixth part is the stock market crash early warning model and its application.By combing system theory and complex network system theory,combined with the research results of chapters3,4 and 5,a stock market crash risk early warning model based on complex network system dynamics is established,as well as existing research results at home and abroad,using the LPPL model And an improved model,an empirical study was conducted on the three stock market crashes of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2006-2007,2008-2009,and 2014-2014.The seventh part is the stock market crash risk early warning mechanism and response management.This part proposes the stock market crash risk early warning mechanism,the basic content and workflow of the stock market crash risk early warning management system,and the long-term model of stock market crash risk early warning management.The eighth part is the conclusion and prospect of the research.Summarize the research results of the full text,and look forward to the next research.There are three main innovations in this paper: First,a research framework covering the combination of stock market crash risk assessment and crash time interval is proposed,and the innovation of the research paradigm is realized.The nature of the complex system involving the participation of many stakeholders such as regulatory authorities,listed companies,institutional investors,and individual investors.Therefore,the factors affecting the stock market crash must be the comprehensive effect of multi-dimensional influencing factors.Then the stock market crash is also destined to be a caused by the superposition of various complex factors.From the perspective of system theory,the stock market crash is more the result of the collapse of a complex system.To avoid the catastrophic risk of a stock market crash,the key lies in the timely early warning of various risks through various formal and informal institutional arrangements.,to mitigate the adverse impact of the stock market crash on stakeholders.For this reason,the paper constructs a research framework combining the crash risk evaluation index system and the crash early warning model to jointly quantify the magnitude of the crash risk and the possible crash time interval,realizing the innovation of the quantitative research on the crash.2.Constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system for stock market crash risk,realizing the innovation of research tools.From a more macroscopic and more systematic perspective,the thesis uses system theory and dynamics related theories to condense the core risk factors that affect the stock market crash,and comprehensively uses quantitative research tools such as the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for stock market crash risk.The regulatory authorities and investors should clarify the basic risk sources of the stock market operation,help the regulatory authorities to supervise the operation of the stock market more effectively,and achieve the goal of preventing the operation of the stock market from malfunctioning and achieving the goal of stabilizing the financial market.3.The paper integrates a variety of methods and realizes the integration and innovation of research methods: the paper uses the method of literature and materials and the method of phenomenological stripping through the perspective of phenomenological philosophical speculation and historical materialism to explain that the stock market crash reflects to some extent the The nature of network effects in complex systems.It is planned to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system of stock market crash risk by combining the method of fuzzy mathematics and systematic analysis through theoretical analysis and empirical model establishment,and construct a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.By establishing a stock market crash risk evaluation set,a hierarchical structure model and a judgment matrix,after normalizing the original data matrix,the consistency test is carried out,and the weights of the evaluation indicators are obtained.The influencing factors of the crash and the degree of its effect,and comprehensively grasp the basic laws and root causes of the operation of the stock market crash.On this basis,it is planned to further establish a stock market crash early warning model based on complex systems and dynamic effects from the perspective of systems theory and dynamics,and proposes to establish and improve the stock market crash early warning system to provide decision-making and reference for the stability and sustainable development of my country’s financial market.,realizing the integration and innovation of various research methods. |
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