Research On Debt Risk Early Warning Of The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Company

Corporate bond is a main financing way for the companies in developed countries. But in China, the development of the corporate bond market is far behind the stock market. After twenty years of rapid development, Chinese capital market has been initially formed the stocks, bonds, derivatives and other varieties multi level market, which can meet the needs of different subjects. However, at present stage, the structure of Chinese capital market is not reasonable. In the direct financing channels, compared with the stock market, the development of the Chinese bond market, especially the corporate bond market taking the listed company as the issued body, is far from adequate. Especially since 2014, a series of risk events have happened in the corporate bond market. “11 Chaori bond” financial cheating and huge loss event directly lead“11 Chaori bond” to declare defaul. This is first corporate bond fell to a real default in the history of corporate bond in China, and follows the events such as “12 Zhongfu bond” declared to stop NON-IPO, and “12Xiange bond” declared to stop NON-IPO. The risk of the corporate bond is increasingly paid attention to widely by the investors and regulators, which has become an important part of the research on the risks in securities market. A series of data show that the issued body company of corporate bonds has no obvious advantage in profitability and solvency when compared the financial index with Shenzhen A shares of the company. Many aspects show that the market needs a rather perfect risk warning system to provide the risk early warning for the investors and regulators.In this paper, combined with the characteristics of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange ordinary corporate bonds, based on the second quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2014 data, using a series of data processing methods such as the principal component comprehensive score method, it established the corporate debt risk early-warning system. The system includes two parts of risk evaluation and risk early warning. In the part of the evaluation, it evaluated the current overall risk of corporate bond market and the individual risk, and conducted a risk ranking; and in the part of risk early warning, it listed the current corporate bonds that appeared the risk, and chose the high-risk bonds to make predicted analysis. Finally, it carried out an analysis from investors and managers perspective, and provided some suggestions of the author. The results of this study shows: the risk of corporate bond market in Shenzhen securities Exchange is stable as a whole. And most of the bonds are in a reasonable risk range. At the same time, it also has some risk bonds, which needs to be paid more attention by the investors and regulators.