| With the rapid development of economy and society, the quantity demanded of the groundwater resources is on the increase. Excessive exploiting groundwater is not only cause surface subsidence , ground fracturing, ground settlement and any other geological disaster ,but also cause groundwater recession, groundwater deterioration and other environmental problem .This paper make Jinan springs as the study area, analysed the year and annual dynamic characteristics of groundwater level in Jinan springs, discussed the influencing factor of groundwater level, analysed the time series and trend surface of groundwater level, at last, optimized the groundwater monitor network. The research is significant to Jinan springs'groundwater protection, ground water level prediction and monitor network optimization. The results and innovation were summarized as following:1. This paper researched nearly 60 years'sequence data of groundwater level, the major conclusions as following: as a whole, the relationship between the groundwater level of recharge area, runoff area, discharge area and rainfall was close, presented obvious seasonal. The consistency of groundwater level between recharge area and runoff area is well. The groundwater level of discharge area rised fastest during the flood season; It has analysed the ground water level characteristics of 60's, 70and80's, 90's and after 2003.As a whole, the ground water level has been through"rise- continued to decline- rise and fall- rise"four phases. Over time, the influence of human factors on the ground water level was increasing.2. Multiple linear regression model was used to research the effect of rainfall and exploitation on the ground water level, and through established the regression model between years of rainfall, urban exploitation, outskirts exploitation and the ground water level researched the effect of rainfall and exploitation on the ground water level of 60's,70 and 80's, 90's and after 2003. The results indicated that the great effect on the ground water level were rainfall in the same year and the rainfall in the previous year but exploitation not in 60's, the great effect on the ground water level were exploitation especially outskirts exploitation and the rainfall not in 70 and 80's. After 90's, the main factor of the groundwater level change was rainfall, exploitation and water conservancy project. The water conservancy project made the great effect on the ground water level. 3. The conjunctive model of gray model- spectrum analysis model- auto-regression model was used to analysis sequence data of groundwater level monthly value of Baotu spring during 2007 and 2009. It was found that the groundwater level of spring region showed an increasing trend in recent years. It found a primary period of one year,which reflected the seasonal variation of the groundwater level. Through the model precision test, it found that the model precision was well and it could be used for the groundwater level prediction. The polynomial trend surface analysis model was used to research the groundwater level of Jinan springs for the first time. It made a ground water level trend surface deviation map by surfer. It marked off the groundwater level abnormal region of Jinan springs and analysed the reason for the abnormal groundwater level.4. According to the existing arrangement of the groundwater monitor network of Jinan springs, the ordinary Kriging was used to optimize the density of monitoring point . The variogram calculated to beγ( h ) = 0.3085 hi0j.5551. It proposed a scheme that newly increased eleven and got rid of one monitoring wells in research area. The theoretical variance were all satisfy the monitoring demand after optimization. At last, it made confidence interval of the mean of groundwater level as the optimization objective, combined with the statistical theory optimized the monitoring frequency of groundwater level. The results indicated that the monitoring frequency of one time five days was reasonable. |
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