Long Term Distribution Of Disaster-Induced Typhoon Surges And Their Intensity Grades Classification

Mitigation of typhoon-induced disaster in coastal zone plays an important role for the sustainable economic development in Qingdao area. This paper analyses the characteristics of the typhoon surge disaster occurred in Qingdao since 1949. On the basis of observed tide level and wave height series that are sampled from typhoon processes, two novel bivariate compound extreme distributions are presented to predict typhoon surge intensity. The main content of this study is as follows:To expand the existent bivariate compound extreme distribution. Poisson Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution is proposed based on Poisson Bivariate Mixed Gumbel Distribution.To expand the existent bivariate compound distribution. Poisson Bivariate Lognormal Distribution are proposed based on Poisson Bivariate Gumbel Type Distribution.On the basis of observed tidal level and simultaneously occurred wave height series that are sampled from typhoon processes in Qingdao coastal area since 1949, the return periods of typhoon surge are estimated. A new criterion is put forward to classify intensity grade of disaster-induced typhoon surge. Practical case indicates that new criterion is clear in probability concept, easy to operate, and fits to the calculation of typhoon surge intensity.