Study On Sensitive Index And Threshold In Working Face Of C13-1 Coalbed In Pansan Mine

China is one of the nations that have grievous coal and gas outburst problems,gas outburst prediction is the key technology of gas prevention and treatment,moreover,the core of outburst prediction is the system of sensitive indicator.In order to study the sensitive indicator and critical values of the NO.13 seam in Pansan coal mine,this paper determines the sensitivity of the predictors based on the critical degree of variance analysis and the "three rate" analysis ,And determines the critical value of sensitive index with statistical analysis of fuzzy based on membership function and the "three rate" analysis.At the same tiame,the paper introduces and analyzes the domestic and international coal and gas outburst forecasting methods and the corresponding index system,as well as the methods to determine sensitive index and their threshold.On the basis of analysis of geological history and geological evolution of structural characteristics in Pansan Coal Mine and the characteristics of coal and gas outburst in Pansan C13-1 coal seam,it studies factors of coal and gas outburst influence on Pansan C13-1 coal seam.Experimental study on dynamic characteristics of gas emission provides laboratory basis on the follow-up investigations to determine the object and the sensitivity analysis. It makes the concept of critical degree, and gives definitions and formulas.At the same time, on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of individual index, as well as coal and the complexity of gas outburst, constructs composite index containing two single index, and gives the calculation procedure. Finally, it examines the application of sensitive index and its threshold and analyzes its economic and social benefits .