Study On Mathematical Model For Analysising Outburst Prediction Sensitive Index Of Zhaogezhuang Coal Mine

Our country is one of the most serious countries that occur coal and gas outburstdisasters. Especially in recent years, with the deepening of coal mining depth and thethe increasing of underground mining range, the underground natural condition is morecomplex and diverse. Coal mines are faced with major and serious accidents at everymoment. It’s seriously threat to the life safe of the underground staff and the safe andefficient production of the coal mine. Therefore, it is extremely important to conduct teffective scientific outburst prediction before coal and gas outburst mine occurs.It starts from the current research of home and abroad on coal and gas outburst.Through today’s research and analysis on outburst mechanism, it discusses the gasoutburst prediction research achievements at home and abroad, and the situation thatreasonably determines and forecast the sensitive index. Especially the analysis of"Quaternity" regional and local comprehensive outburst prevention measures,which is apart of《Prevention of coal and gas outburst Regulations》,which is promulgated andcarried out in recent years. It combines with the outburst characteristics of No.9coalseam in Zhao Coal Mine, analyse a series of factors tha affects coal and gas outburst(such as geological structure, coal seam roof and floor lithology, seam thickness andinclination, etc.), and outburst prevention measures situation that carried out by themine, and prominently analyze the predictors which is use currently.Considering the outburst of No.9coal seam occurs mostly in heading face. On thisbasis, we are statistic analysis the outburst predictor of the heading face, and use graycorrelation analysis and factor analysis methods to determine the outburst predictionsensitive indicator of Zhao Coal Mine No.9coal seam, and a representative of outburstmining face. It gets the relationships among the various prediction sensitive indexs byfactor analysis. Finally we take the effect testing and validation to prove it reliable andcredible basically. It provides a valid and reliable methods for "Quaternity" regional andlocal comprehensive outburst prevention measures of the Zhaoge zhuang coal mine. Itwill simplify the mine prediction outburst cost. It has far-reaching significance to guidethe safe and efficient production for the mine.