The Application Of Catastrophe Theory In The Analysis Of Petroleum Value Trend

The status and effect of petroleum in the country economy is very important.The economy foundation of modernization society is based on the petroleum firmly.The petroleum price has effect on the stabilization of the market .Chinese petroleum industry must go on continuable developmental way,with market mechanism and supply and demand relation, adjust supply mode with price mode,this is the right way of petroleum industry.With the establishment of market mechanism, adjusting supply mode with price becomes important mode of macroscopical adjustion and control.The thesis mainly based on Catastrophe Theory, researches cusp catastrophic model and pucker catastrophic model of petroleum price, discusser the condition of petroleum price catastrophe in allusion to several excessive demand function of typical non-linear petroleum market.With Matlab and data least squares analysis fitting, the thesis establishes numerical value stimulant way,and stimulates the data of petroleum price,demand and supply during 1995 and 2004,gets the excessive demand function.The result is good.Based on the result,the thesis analyses the price catastrophe of petroleum market and concludes that Chinese petroleum price doesn't appear catastrophe,and the thesis ulteriorly researches petroleum price,supply and demand.The result indicates that simulating movement of petroleum price and evolvement mode with Catastrophe Theory is viable way.The thesis is divided into five chapters.Chapter one:It mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic research,and summarizes existing research way of the petroleum price and the development of Catastrophe Theory.At last it introduces content and chapter introduction of the thesis.Chapter two:It introduce Catastrophe Theory, contains the character and geometric figure of seven catastrophe, namely balanceable bendsurface and bifurcation gather.And it discusses and summarizes the applications,disquisitive mode of the thesis and petroleum price catastrophic program.Chapter three:Based on Catastrophe Theory and dynamic market model,discusses and researches catastrophic model of petroleum price,supply and demand,and summarizes the condition of petroleum price catastrophe.Chapter four:With Matlab,Based on the petroleum price,suppy and demand during 1995 and 2004,it simulates and gets excessive demand function,and analyses the result.Chapter five :It summarizes the thesis,and points out the work and the deficiency of the thesis.