Study On Assessment And Forecast Modeling For Society, Economy, Resource And Environment Coordinated Development Of Wuhan

With the acceleration of the urbanization pace, the scale and speed that mankind utilizes, transforms natural resource and natural environment are strengthened unprecedentedly. The impact and restriction effect on economic development of human society are more obvious than anytime in the past by natural resource and natural environment. The contradiction between social development, economic development, resource protection and environment protection are outstanding increasingly. The problems for resource shortage, environment pollution, ecology being out-of-balance exposes the drawback of traditional development mode. So the mankind begins to seek the new high-quality development mode, so sustainable development (SD) is proposed. Though the explanation of SD has some differences recently, the essence of SD is the coordinated development of nature and social system (or man-land systems), the core of SD reduces to four key elements as follows: society, economy, resource and environment. It is a foundation of development to coordination. The coordinated development of society, economy, resource and environment is not only the core but also the essence of sustainable development.In the angle of systems science, this thesis treats society, economy, resource and environment as an integer, provides a demonstration study on Wuhan city. In the very first place, on the basis of expatiating the importance of indicators system and design principle, a coordinated development indicators system (CDIS) for society, economy, resource and environment of Wuhan has been established. The CDIS is made up of system layer, rule layer and indicators layer.What's more, we used coordinated development theory and set pair analysis (SPA) to set up two models that validated each other, used the models to evaluate coordinated development status, which existed within a time serial from 1991 to 2003 in Wuhan, the results indicated that the two models have grasped the coordinated development status of Wuhan, the coordination degree presented a rising trend from 1991 to 2003, only had a downtrend in 1995. In addition, we used grey artificial neural network (GANN) to forecast the trend of coordinated development. The forecast model used grey system which can deal poor information skillfully to avoid the bottleneck that artificial neural network needing much more sample data. So the forecast model has advantage in grasping data uncertainty by GM(1,1) and forecasting in non-linear fitting area by artificial neural network. The results indicated that the coordination development index of Wuhan presented a nice rising trend from 2004. Calculating procedures for all the models in this thesis had been programmed into code to make the using of these models convenient.At the end, we discussed the impact that the designing process of indicators system and the accepting or rejecting of important indicators acting on assessment results. On the basis of analyzing the actuality of society, economy, resource and environment in Wuhan, we put forward countermeasure that consulted evaluated results and forecasted results to guide Wuhan city to construct ecosystem, so as to bring the society, economy, resource and environment of Wuhan to the road of coordinated development, and precipitate Wuhan to become the important tactic pivot of China's midland rising. We compared and analyzed the two evaluating models and forecasting model, discussed the applicability of coordinated development theory and set pair analysis (SPA) in coordinated development evaluating. Furthermore, in the paper, we put forward a suggested approach to evaluate and forecast complex system, which associate coordinated development theory, SPA and GANN with some other tools for complex system modeling. It is believed to integrate evaluation, forecast and countermeasure studying as a whole.