The Ecological Footprint Study Of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture

This paper is on the basic of introducing the ecological footprint theory,its calculation method and the current research results,using Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture nine years'data on the Statistical yearbook and the ecological footprint questionnaire of the year 2006,to dynamical analyse and forecast the ecological footprint per capita of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, to compare the ecological footprint by the methods of compound and component, and to analyse the forecast trends of ecological footprint per capita.The conclusion is:1.From the year 1997 to 2006,the ecological footprint of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture is: 2.422hm2, 2.683hm2, 2.883hm2, 3.067hm2, 2.763hm2, 3.206hm2, 3.457hm2,3.937hm2, 4.172hm2, 4.542hm2.From the year 1997 to 2006, the ecological carrying capacity is: 2.680hm2, 2.750 hm2,2.715hm2,2.719hm2,2.714hm2,2.690hm2,2.661hm2,2.652hm2,2.789 hm2,2.803hm2.2.For nearly 10 years, the ecological surplus is from 1997 to 1998, they are:0.258hm2,0.067hm2.The year of ecological deficit is from 1999 to 2006,they are:-0.168hm2,-0.348hm2,-0.049hm2,-0.516hm2,-0.796hm2, -1.285hm2, -1.383hm2, -1.739hm2, and the data is nearly increasing, this indicates that Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture has been changed the state from eco-sustainable development to unsustainable development.3.From the study on composing of ecological footprint,it is found that: the ecological footprint of grassland is of the largest percentage,about 41 percent,followed by the arable land and fossil fuel sites,which are 30 percent and 27 percent,the ecological footprint of woodland and construction sites are in very small proportion,this shows that human consumption of meat and dairy are the largest,followed by food and energy,it shows that the people living standards in Changji keep improving.4.The ecological footprint per capita in 2006 which are calculated by the methods of compound and component,they all produced ecological deficit,it had differences between the two methods,and the degree of deficit is also different,the ecological deficit of the compound method is:-1.739hm2,the ecological deficit of the component method is:-0.441 hm2,differed in 1.298hm2.This is because two kinds of computational methods'emphasis points create different.5.Analyzed and forecasted the trend of the ecological footprint per capita,the model for the expression is:Y=0.221X+2.100,it can better predict the changes of ecological footprint per capita in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture.According to this model,forecast the ecological footprint per capita of 2010 in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture will reach 5.194hm2,but this is in accordance with the existing production and consumption patterns and existing levels of development,so the result is more conservative.