The Research And Demonstration Of Public Environmental Acceptable Risk Level Of Typical Chemical Industrial Park

Since the concept of acceptable risk level was proposed,it has attracted the extensive concern of the theory circle.Different nations began to establish their respective industry industrial acceptable risk level.Most studies concentrate on the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the objective risk,while few studies focus on the subjective risk.Among the influential factors of the acceptable risk level: Which are related significant ones,and what kind of relationship between those factors and the acceptable risk level,and according to the public perception to the environmental risk,how can we come to the relationship between perception of risk and the acceptable risk level? All of these are the problems this paper will discuss.On the basis of further study of the risk perception investigation method in domestic,this paper designs the questionnaire of the public perception to the environmental risk.With reference to physiological measurement paradigm's investigation method for public risk perception,and according to the definition of the environmental risk,the questionnaire selects two dimensions:influence degree and possibility.The objects of the survey are the enterprises and the people around there in some chemical industry area.The contents of the investigation include the investigation of the basic information and the investigation of the environmental risk perception.The investigation way adopts the on-site questionnaires.At first,we conduct the pretest of the questionnaires in Beijing:We make the reliability and validity analysis for the questionnaires.According to the feedback analysis result,we make improvement for the measuring scales.We send out 600 questionnaires and take back 490 valid ones.Using the multivariate statistical analysis such as difference analysis,factor analysis and regression analysis and with the help of SPSS,this paper further conducts the profound discussion of the influencing factors for risk acceptability.At the same time,through the distinction of the risk acceptability among different characteristic population groups,this paper conducts the trial analysis of acceptable risk level in domestic.The analysis results indicate:(1) The measuring scales in the questionnaire have favorable liability and validity.Through the weighted average of all the factors,we can get three risk cognitive intervals:high score group(7.15, 9.47),its acceptable level is low;middle score group:(5.26,7.15);low score group:(2.42,5.26),its acceptable level is high.(2) Demographic factors that influence the public risk perception are:the educational level,the income level,career,the distance from the risk source,whether they have encountered risk incidents. (3) Through the optimal subset regression model and logistic regression model,putting the demographic factors and environmental risk factors as the independent variables and whether the risk is acceptable as the dependent factors,we can get the forecasting model for the acceptable risk level,and the extent of simulation and fitting is good.