Assessment Of Pollution Disaster Risk In Near-shore Coastal Waters Based On Catastrophe Theory

Recently, the environment pollution in the coastal waters is an emergent problem of significant importance.This paper combined multi-criteria evaluation method based on catastrophe theory to set up a set of a model for the assessment of environmental disasters in near-shore areas. An evaluation system of seven mesosphere indicators and twenty underlying indicators are set up, including aqua chemistry, aqua physics, aqua biology surface sediments, heavy metals in the water and organics pollution.Risk on environmental disasters in offshore area of Dalian Bay during year 2001 and year 2006 were evaluated using assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters. The result was that, in 2001, the overall environmental disaster indicators in the local Dalian Bay coastal waters was not qualified as Level 3 sea water quality standard, meaning there existed risks of eutrophication disaster and organic pollutants disaster; in 2006, the overall environmental disaster indicators in the local Dalian Bay coastal waters was qualified as Level 2 sea water quality standard but there still existed the risk of eutrophication disaster. Our result is coincident with the history record.Considering the actual situation in the nearshore sea areas in Yingkou, China, eutrophication disaster indicators, organic pollutants disaster indicators and heavy metals disaster indicators were chosen accordingly to evaluate risks on environmental disasters in different near-shore areas in Yingkou during 1998 to 2007. The results showed that before year 2004, eutrophication disaster could have happened anywhere in Yingkou, organic pollutants disaster in part of the sea, and nearly no chance for heavy metals disaster; after year 2005, the risks of all three to happen were lowered, however, compared to other types of disasters, eutrophication disaster was still the main threat in Yingkou. To conclude, the above conclusions are directly related to the historical distribution and change of industrial structure in Yingkou. Here, again, the results were consistent with history record.In the end, based on the results of risk on environmental disasters in near-shore areas in Yingkou and the principles of eco-industrial and cyclic economy and so on, ideas for regulating and management strategies industrial distribution of the companies in the coast of Yingkou are brought up.