Research On The Gray Prediction Model Of Open-pit Slope Deformation

Because of open-pit slope complex geological causes,coal mining,the impact of precipitation and other conditions, deformation and disaster of much open-pit mine slope usually happened. Aiming at this problem, Finding useful information from the slope of the influencing factors and observational data,Establishing the improved GM(1,1) model of single-point,and the multi-point gray connection prediction model to predict the deformation of the slope,Establishing the Open-pit slope deformation prediction system.The main points of this essay are as follows:Firstly, based on the Gray theory, Least-squares theory and Curve fitting theory, Establishing the slope prediction model for dynamic monitoring.Based on the traditional GM(1,1) model, through the background value improvement, the starting value improvement based on single-point, the gray connection forecasts based on multi-point as well as the unified model to make the improvement to GM(1,1), realizes the information real-time renewal and the side slope dynamic monitor, acts according to the side slope change situation formulation measure fast, provides the technical support for the mine safety in production, ensures the Open-pit slope security well.Secondly,Taking MATLAB7.1 as the software platform, unifies the side slope gray prediction models, has established the side slope data processing system, realizes data fast processing and the effective management.Thirdly,Taking the Hai Zhou Open-pit slope monitored datas as the data, studies the content in view of the above two aspects to carry on the practice examination. The results indicate that traditional GM (1,1) forecast model's average relative error is 1.11%, but improves the background value and starting value simple point GM (1,1) the model forecast average relative error respectively is 0.605%, 0.472%,the forecast precision is obviously higher than traditional GM (1,1).At the same time,the multi-point gray connection forecast model's simulation precision 0.1, the forecast precision is 0.2.