Environmental Security Evaluation And Forecast In Rural Area Of Gansu Province

Nearly a century, with the great progress of science and technology, the human got the massive wealth. At the same time, the environment suffered different degrees of destruction and pollution. More serious, the regional environmental problems have extended to other parts of the world. Various environmental problems threatened the survival and development of human. China is in a stage of rapid economic development with a huge population, it is facing many environmental problems. Gansu province is a typical agricultural district, and the rural development is the important constituent of economic and social development. Gansu province is also facing increasing environmental pressure due to poor natural conditions, frail ecology environment, and underdeveloped economy, huge population, weak infrastructure, and the public service fall behind. Thus all of these are a huge threat to the rural environmental security of Gansu province. The rural environmental security research can provide reference to the regional development policies of Gansu province, and provide decision-making support to the sustainable development of social economy.Based on the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) model, an index system was established to evaluate the rural environmental security in Gansu Province. The results showed that the rural environmental security ranked the II grade (risk status) in Gansu province from 2003 to 2008. Then, the rural environmental security from 2009 to 2018 of Gansu province was forecasted with Gray Model. The result showed that the rural environmental security status has a downward trend.The main factors influencing the local rural environmental security were discussed. Furthermore, some proposals and measures including population control, population quantity improve, and cultivated land protection, the construction of infrastructure strengthen, and the ecological construction and environmental protection reinforce, agricultural development foundation improve, the development of social undertakings accelerate, and a healthy social system build were put forward to improve the local security level.