Study On Evaluation And Forecast Technology Of Urban Traffic Atmospheric Environment Influence

This dissertation is one part of the project aided by National Nature Science Foundation of China, Research on Sustainable Development of Urban Traffic System. It is done as five parts and accordingly got some results in the following. Through summarizing the results of correlation research in our country, the status in quo of urban traffic atmospheric environment influence is analyzed, and the CO, NOx and HC are acted as evaluation factors. The MOBILE5 model and it's software, which is applied widely in the world, is introduced to calculate the emission factors of urban typical vehicle in our country, and Nanjing is acted as an example to be discussed how to apply it, and simultaneously the vehicle emission factors of Nanjing is got. With curve estimation, the models of vehicle emission factors whose independent variable is vehicle average travel speed is set up, and so does the models'structure. The following is the vehicle emission factor model structure. (1)The function of motor CO emission factor is hyperbola, and other type vehicle is three ranks. (2) The functions of vehicle emission factor are three ranks. (3)The function of car HC emission factor is negative power, and middle duty vehicle's and jeep's are same to car's, and the heavy duty gasoline powered vehicle's and the heavy duty diesel powered vehicle's are three ranks, and motor's is hyperbola. Through analysis on the effect on urban vehicle emission pollutants diffusivity, which is produced by urban street buildings structure, wind, wind speed and sunlight, the conclusion is :(1) the condition that urban street two sides building'height is not same is propitious for pollutants diffusivity, and so does parallel; (2) under the effect of asymmetry sunlight, pollutants'stabilization degree and diffusivity capacity is different at different period of time in one day in urban street canyon. Author reviews and sums up the diffusivity models of vehicle emission pollutants in urban street inside and outside state, and applies the OSPM modified model to forecast the diffusivity concentration of vehicle emission pollutants in urban street on the base of application research on them inside and outside nation, and develops one diffuse model for crossroad and T-intersection on the base of OSPM model and Nichoson box model developed Beijing Polytechnic University. The evaluation on urban traffic atmospheric environment influence is done as two aspects: pollution emission quantity and diffusivity concentration. The pollutants emission quantity forecast is calculated according to (1) link traffic volume, and intersection traffic volume, and road network traffic load, (2) vehicle type, (3) road grade. Author establishes evaluation model of pollutant emission quantity according to road network grade, and brings forward the conception of road grade pollution rate, and advances Grey Correlation Analysis model to analyze the correlation degree between vehicle type and pollutants emission quantity. The author advances one Grey Clustering Decision-Making Evaluation model of urban street traffic atmospheric pollution. In this model, urban traffic atmospheric pollution is classified as four grey classes on the basis of urban environment quality standard, such as excellent class, fine class, common class, and bad class, and the method to make the evaluation matrix is given, and four grey classes whiten weights function is set up, and the synthesis decision-making weight is got with the method of beyond standard contribution rate, and the clustering procedure is processed in accord with grey clustering coefficient. On the base of evaluation results, we can confirm the degree of effect of different vehicle type and different road grade on urban atmospheric pollution, and further know the object needed controlling. Author develops the software of urban traffic atmospheric influence evaluation and forecast, and integrates it into the "TranStar"system, and enriches and perfects this system. Suzhou City is taken an example for discussing the procedure of evaluation and forecast on urban traffic atmospheric environment influence and the application of the software. Author gives the forecast results of Suzhou's urban traffic atmospheric pollutants emission quantity and major roads'traffic pollutants diffuseness concentration, and points out the major factor of environment effect, and put forward the countermeasures to decrease the environment pollution. In addition, author also has done some work in the systemic dynamics of urban traffic environment and energy, such as (1) the countermeasures of urban traffic atmospheric pollution controlling in vehicle design and emission decontamination, and urban vehicle energy structure, and vehicle emission controlling, and urban traffic manage, and urban traffic controlling, and so on; (2) with the systemic dynamics theory, research on the systemic dynamics mechanism of urban traffic environment and energy consume, and setting up the system structure and the system flow figures, and analyzing the causality, and advancing urban integrated traffic planning mode based on environment and energy consume restriction; (3) establishing Urban RoadTraffic Environment Pollution Controlling System structure composed of seven parts: Urban Area Traffic Signal Controlling System, and Urban Weather Supervision System, and Urban Environment Supervision System, and Vehicle Emission Pollution Analysis System, and Vehicle Noise Pollution Analysis System, and Urban Basic Geography Information Database System, and Urban Traffic Environment Evaluation Results Output System. Finally, the paper gives some prospects for future research in this field.