Study On The Methods And Application Of Estimation Of CO₂ Emission On Urban Household Energy Consumption

With the development of social economy, urbanization, population and living standards, the household CO2 emission per capita is growing, considering the acceleration of industrialization, the transformation of industrial structure and the mode of economic growth, as well as the spread of energy-saving technology, the energy consumption of secondary industry will reduce significantly. Meanwhile, the proportion of the household energy consumption in total energy consumption increases hugely. The studies from EU have shown that the demand of household energy consumption exceeded the industrial energy consumption in the 1990s. China's industrialization is different from EU countries, but the acceleration of urbanization, the distribution of rural population and the improving of living standards still lead to the increase of household energy consumption. In order to fulfill the commitment of reducing the CO2 emission that China announced in Copenhagen Conference and make the plan for carbon emission reduction, most importantly the current level of carbon emission should be estimated accurately.The study focuses on the estimation of household CO2 emission in Tianjin and the proportion of household CO2 in the CO2 emission of energy of whole national economy. Aimed to seek for the effective paths of household CO2 emission reduction and provide the data support for the government making decision.After sorting out the reference about the methods on estimation of household CO2 emission, the author defined the advantages, disadvantages and applicabilities of these various methods. According to methodologies and emission default values in 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, a Carbon Emission model integrating Residential and Traffic Energy Consumption (CERTEC) was developed to estimate the household CO2 emission per capita between 2006 and 2008 in Tianjin, China. The proportion of household CO2 emission in the total energy related CO2 emission was also calculated. The primary findings of the research are as follows, household CO2 emission levels and intensities both increased between 2006 and 2008 in Tianjin, and the household CO2 emission increased by 13.7% between 2006 and 2008. Then the results were analyzed in terms of industrial structure and energy consumption. At the same time, the difference of household CO2 emission between Beijing and Tianjin was compared from the angel of the structure of energy consumption. Then the scenario analysis was used to predict the household CO2 emission in 2015, the emission of baseline scenario is 22,485,OOOt and that of reference scenario is 21,652,OOOt. Finally, the measures of reducing the household CO2 emission were provided from the angle of energy structure, low-carbon building, low-carbon transport and low-carbon consumption.