Household CO₂ Emissions:Trend,Driving Factors And Mitigation Strategies In The Process Of Urbanization

BackgroundGlobal warming has become a non-traditional security issue.Carbon dioxide(CO2)is the largest contributor to long-term climate change.As the top CO2 emitter,China promises that the national CO2 emissions will reach the summit in 2030 in Paris Agreement.With the demographic transition and consumption upgrading,coupled with the development of urbanization,household size shrinking and the larger number of nuclear households,household CO2 emissions(HCE)will be the emerging sector of CO2 emissions in the near future.Therefore,it is of significance to explore the trends of urban and rural HCE,the driving factors and influencing mechanism,and provide evidence and reference for energy-saving policy and emission mitigation.Research Objectives and MethodsThis research builds up the theoretical framework among population,households,consumption,CO2 emissionsn and environment.The framework starts from urban and rural HCE caused by consumption.By calculation,the trends and characteristics of HCE are analyzed.Direct household energy consumption and CO2 emissions are calculated with the method recommended by IPCC,while indirect household energy consumption and CO2 emissions are evaluated using input-output model.From the perspective of household urbanization,the variations of HCE can be explained by the demographic,economic and technological effects.Influencing factors of household consumption patterns are analyzed from the micro perspective of household heterogeneity.The CO2 emissions of different types of households are calculated and analyzed by Consumer Lifestyle Approach.Multivariate linear regression model is applied to quantify the effects of income,urban and rural division,household size,householder's age,gender,education level on HCE.Based on the two-level decomposition method,factors influencing the ratio between HCE and national CO2 emissions.International comparison have been made to clarify the development stage of China's HCE.With the consideration of the new economic norm in China,socio-demographic development trend and the emission mitigation,the variation of HCE from 2017 to 2050 is predicted based on the IHAT-IDA Model which is transformed from IPAT Model.Mitigation suggestions are put forward from household consumption side and production side.Conclusions(1).Urban and rural household direct energy consumption structures turn to be more low-carbonized and there is urban-rural disparities.Compared with developed countries,the level of Chinese direct energy consumption and CO2 emissions is relatively lower,and the potential of emission mitigation mainly relies on related production sectors.(2).The related production sectors of household indirect CO2 emissions shift from agriculture,food production to service-related sectors including residence and medical care.(3).From macro side,income and the quantity of households contributed positively to HCE,and urbanization leads to more indirect emissions.Urban and rural HCE display distinct highly-carbonized lifestyles and consumption patterns.Emission intensity prohibits the increase of HCE.(4).From micro side,household income,household size,householder's age,education and gender have different impacts on the quantity and pattern HCE.(5).Urban and rural richest households contribute 46.8%,33.2%to urban and rural household CO2 emissions respectively,indicating that richer households have more emission responsibility.Policy makers should carry out distinguishing policy tools regarding different types of households.(6).HCE constitute 43.5%of national CO2 emissions and this proportion will reach 70?75%in 2050 based on our estimation.(7).HCE will reach the summit in 2028?2031,and Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis is applied to Chinese household emission.