Pollution Risk Assessment Of Shipboard Oil Spill Accidents In Xiamen Bay

Marine transport has flourished in recent decades with rapid economic development. But at the same time, frequent occurrences of oil spills have caused tremendous economic and ecological losses. So it is of important theoretical significance and application value to assess and study the risks may caused by oil spills, as well as to some Emergency precautions such as the optimization of emergency equipment locations, determination of emergency response time, and as much as possible to reduce the loss of oil spill pollution.This thesis take ship oil-spill pollution incident in the Xiamen Bay s as the study object. Firstly, it analyzes Xiamen Bay's environmental profile the Xiamen Bay's environmental profile on its nature, meteorology, hydrological port economy and environmentally sensitive resources. It uses the Lagrangian oil particle tracking method and establishes Xiamen Bay oil spill drift-diffusion model; in the end, it adopts Typical Scenario Simulation and Random Scenario Simulation to predict and assess the risks caused by Xiamen Bay oil-spill accidents to the environmentally sensitive resources Xiamen Bay, and it obtains the following results:(1) Typical Scenario Simulation predicts:once Xiamen oil spills occur in the approach channel, under the dominant northeasterly wind or subdominant Southeast wind, the spills will contaminate chicken Island east coast and the Jiulong River Estuary Island in 2-5 hours, the probability of contamination and consequences will be great; under the Southwest wind's adverse conditions, the spills will contaminate Gulangyu and Xiamen's southern shoreline three hours later;(2) After using advanced Random Scenario Simulation to do comprehensive forecast, it shows that once Xiamen oil spills occur in the approach channel,4-16km around the leak place,230 km2 of the total sea area and a total length of more than 50km of the coastline may be under oil pollution. The oil spill probability of Gulangyu, chicken island, Lantau, south of Xiamen Island is 10-15%, and the oil spill will reach those places in 2-5 hours. Oil film thickness will be 5-20mm, the consequences would be serious. Therefore, Xiamen Oil Spill Equipment should be deployed around Songyu and the emergency start-up time should not exceed 1 hour;The risk results obtained from Random Scenario Simulation and Typical Scenario Simulation are nearly the same. However, compared with Typical Scenario Simulation, Random Scenario Simulation could reflect the uncertainty of oil spill accidents more objectively and comprehensively, assess the risk results of oil spills accidents more reasonably, as well as provide oil spill emergency management and risk prevention with a scientific basis.