Research Of Environmental Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics And Ecological Footprint Model By The Case Of Yulin

China achieved remarkable success in economic since reform and development, but itbrought out corresponding serious environment problems. As an important energy chemicalindustry base in China, Northern Shanxi is rich in mineral resources. But Northern Shanxi'secological environment become more and more fragile with the exploiting of energyresources, and this situation seriously hindered economic and social development in NorthernShanxi. Therefore, in this study, Northern Shanxi's Environment bearing capacity has beenanalyzed systematically, and resources, environment, economic , society factors and so onwas discussed to find out the weak link which hinder economic and social development , andat last set out measurements and suggestions to raise environment bearing capacity.Yulin city is core district of Northern Shanxi's energy and chemical industry base. Thispaper takes Yulin city for example, analyzed each bearing capacity and ecological footprint ofthose productive lands, the calculation results show that the main ecological deficit was fossilenergy, and the ratio reached 98% to total ecological deficit. To make the analysis resultsmore reliable, it should be more pertinence. This paper has conducted a survey forenvironment of Yulin city, forecasted the tendency of environment changing in Yulin city bystatistic and system dynamic methods, the research conclusion as follows:First, main environment problem in Yulin city was water loss and soil erosion, surfacecollapse, short of water resources, environment pollution, and so on.Second, the system dynamic analysis results show that, when take no account ofenvironment bearing capacity, only take the resources'exploit into account, Yulin city wouldsustain high speed for economical development in next 10 years; But the condition was thatthe bearing capacity of environment subsystem would be overloaded in 2014 because the deterioration of air quality, water resources bearing capacity would exceed the limits in 2017.Air quality and water resources become determinant which hindered sustainable developmentof Yulin city.Third, the schemes to improve bearing capacity are these: Strengthen the ecologicalmanagement and improve ecological carrying capacity, transfer economic model, optimizethe industrial structure, pay more attention on environment management and environmentalmonitor, improve ecological structure of land, using resource allocation means to balance theEcological deficit.