Research On The Construction And Application Of Urban Energy Consumption System Model Based On System Dynamics

Under the global low-carbon trend,the country’s main task is to develop the economy and maintain steady economic growth,improve people’s living standards,and also achieve low-carbon development.The Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)released in October 2018 in the "Special Report on 1.5 ° C" stated that the carbon dioxide emissions from human activities need to reach net zero around 2050,and the world is likely to achieve 1.5 ° C long-term temperature target.In addition,after three years of stagnation in global carbon emissions,2018 reached a record high again,and the global response to climate change challenges has been escalated again.The Secretary General of the United Nations Secretary General’s Office of South-South Cooperation mentioned that "in today’s era of increasing climate change impacts,all large-scale construction projects must be considered on the premise of environmental dimensions and sustainability." On October 22,2019,President Xi Jinping wrote a congratulatory letter at the opening of the Taiyuan Energy Low-Carbon Development Forum,stating that low-carbon energy development is about the future of mankind.China attaches great importance to lowcarbon energy development and actively promotes energy consumption,supply,technology,and institutional revolution.China is willing to work with the international community to strengthen energy cooperation in all aspects,maintain energy security,cope with climate change,protect the ecological environment,promote sustainable development,and benefit the peoples of the world.This paper uses system dynamics methods and ideas to make a comprehensive analysis of the current state of energy development in Chinese cities,and studies the internal feedback structure and operating mechanism of energy emission models.Comprehenvely consider the core elements related to energy consumption such as economy,society and carbon emissions,analyze the dynamic mechanism of urban energy consumption,find operable solutions and carry out simulation analysis,and carry out scientific,Effective choice is a new direction for energy development research.Based on an analysis of the current status of China ’s urban economy,population,and energy consumption,this paper uses Vensim software to build a model of the urban energy consumption system.Matlab was used to fit and analyze the relevant data and write the relevant index equations.Xi’an has been the case study object.Xi’an’s energy and economic related data were selected for model verification and simulation.And by comparing the energy consumption and energy policy measures of the United States,Germany,and China,the general laws of energy policy and economic development were obtained.Combined with the country’s situation of being a country with a large population,comprehensive policies for energy development should be proposed.Possible scenarios for reducing urban energy consumption and carbon emissions under different policy backgrounds are simulated.According to the analysis of t-he results,the change of a single variable is helpful to the sustainable development of the city to a certain extent,but it also has certain limitations,because the factors are mutually constrained and affected,and it is impossible to allow any variable to be arbitrary make changes.Therefore,it is not in line with reality to want to achieve the overall goal of the energy consumption carbon emission system by adjusting only one factor.Relatively speaking,it is an effective way and method to achieve the sustainable goals of the entire system by adjusting each influencing factor within a reasonable range under the comprehensive policy.